Euro 2020 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Best Bets for Portugal vs. Germany, Spain vs. Poland, More (Saturday, June 19)

Euro 2020 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Best Bets for Portugal vs. Germany, Spain vs. Poland, More (Saturday, June 19) article feature image
Credit:

Angel Martinez – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images. Pictured: Portugal standout Bruno Fernandes.

  • The "Group of Death" is back in action Saturday, with Portugal vs. Germany highlighting the Group F matches on the Euro 2020 slate.
  • Jeremy Pond, BJ Cunningham, Anthony Dabbundo and Matthew Trebby have unveiled their best bets on the card.
  • Check out how they're playing the three matches on the schedule below.

Things could become pretty electric in Euro 2020 action Saturday, with the “Group of Death” quartet playing its second group-stage matches of the tournament.

Opening the slate is a Group F showdown between Hungary and tournament favorite France, followed by the must-see-TV meeting between Portugal and Germany in the other Group F affair. We close out the card with Spain taking on Poland in the Group E nightcap at Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla in Spain.

Our Action Network soccer analysts have you covered when it comes to your tournament needs, providing game previews, in-depth analysis and selections.

Handicappers Jeremy PondBJ Cunningham, Anthony Dabbundo and Matthew Trebby have delivered their best bets covering all three contests.

That said, let’s take a look at their favorite picks on the docket.

Saturday’s Best Bets

ANALYST PICK | ODDS BEST BOOK
Jeremy Pond France -1.75 (+130) DraftKings
BJ Cunningham Portugal vs. Germany Over 2.5 (+106) DraftKings
Anthony Dabbundo Portugal +0.25 (-120) DraftKings
Matthew Trebby Spain vs. Poland Over 2.5 (-121) DraftKings

Odds as of Friday afternoon.


Jeremy Pond: France -1.75 (+130) vs. Hungary

This match has yet to start, but I’m already offering my thoughts and prayers to Hungary and its fan base ahead of their showdown with reigning World Cup champion France.

Folks, this one is going to get ugly, and in all likelihood, pretty quickly at Ferenc Puskás Stadium in Budapest. Les Blues have been installed as whopping -315 favorites against the Hungarians, who actually held their own against Portugal for 80-plus minutes before the wheels feel off en route to 3-0 defeat.

Now, Hungary gets the task of facing France, which earned a 1-0 victory over Germany on debut. The French were the benefactors of an own goal, but should have bagged at least two more in the win. France lost the battle of expected goals by a 0.9-0.4 margin, according to FBRef.com, but the advanced metric didn’t paint a clear picture as to who was the better side.

Bottom line, France should have a field day against Hungary and will probably have this affair put to bed at the half. I fully expect Kylian Mbappé, Karim Benzema and Les Bleus to dominate the Hungarian back line in this spot ahead of next week’s final group fixture against Portugal.

Obviously, I want no part of France’s gaudy ML odds, so we’ll take it out further and back the powerhouse to win by at least two goals at +130 odds via DraftKings as our top pick. Sit back and watch a French clinic, my friends.

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BJ Cunningham: Portugal vs. Germany — Total Over 2.5 Goals (+106)

Even though it took Portugal more than 80 minutes to get the opening goal against Hungary, it was a well-deserved win because it out-created Hungary in expected goals by a massive 3.08-0.23 difference in the triumph.

And like we saw in that first match, the Portuguese just have so much talent and pace going forward in attack with Cristiano Ronaldo, Diogo Jota and Bruno Fernandes. That trio is going to give Germany’s defense a lot of problems.

Like we saw against France, Germany playing high lines with Mats Hummels, Antonio Rüdiger and Matthias Ginter is a real issue against teams with pace going forward and France had two goals disallowed by offside calls, yet they were only by fractions.

Germany was just so slow and, honestly, boring in its build-up play against a France back line that was sitting really deep. Now, Germany does have a lot of options going forward in attack with Serge Gnarby and Kai Havertz that should give the Portuguese defense some problems, plus the Germans did average more than 2.40 xG per match throughout Euro and World Cup qualifying. 

This game will be played in Munich and I think it’s going to be a really open game due to the fact Germany needs to go for the win. That will play exactly into what Portugal wants to do, so I love the total over 2.5 goals and would play it up to -115 odds.

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Anthony Dabbundo: Portugal +0.25 (-120) vs. Germany

Portugal is at its best when it’s able to play without the ball, defending and breaking on the counter with its pace and myriad of attacking options.

The Portuguese, who won the Euro 2016 tournament playing this style for most of their matches, are one of the better teams in transition attack in the entire competition.

Portugal’s first match against Hungary saw it struggle for 80 minutes on its front foot when it ws forced to break down an opponent by sitting deep, but it won’t have that problem against possession-loving Germany.

Since Germany still has yet to play Hungary, it will be careful to avoid defeat in this match and cautiously avoid getting hit on the break. The Germans know a point, plus three points against Hungary, will be enough to get them through to the knockout round.

Germany had a ton of the possession against France, but only completed six passes into the penalty area. Its attack lacked an ability to get the ball into the box to create clear attacking chances.

The Germans will have the same issues breaking down the Portuguese defense, and for that reason, the underdog has value in a contest that might well end in a draw.

Matthew Trebby: Spain vs. Poland — Total Over 2.5 Goals (-121)

Spain are the Europe’s kings of expected goals, having notched nearly 3.00 per game during Euro 2020 qualifying. They also have shown themselves to be a bit vulnerable at the back, having given up 1.34 to Sweden in their opening game.

While Alexander Isak was a handful for Spain, Poland will be playing this game on the front foot with more creativity than the Swedish. Robert Lewandowski is the best striker in this tournament, and Poland registered 1.64 xG while playing much of the second half with just 10 men.

Spain registered a staggering 2.47 xG without scoring a goal against Sweden. Alvaro Morata continued expertly displaying his inability to finish, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he was dropped for this game.

I expect the Spanish’s chances to continue coming, and I also think their backline is unstable enough that Poland will have plenty of chances too, especially after a quiet game from Lewandowski.

With both teams in need of a win, we’re going to live a little and bet the over.

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