Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Atalanta vs. Lazio (Sunday, Jan. 31)
Sportinfoto/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Josip Ilicic.
- Two sides on a good run of results meet on Sunday in Bergamo, as Atalanta host Lazio.
- The two sides met in midweek action in the Coppa Italia, with Atalanta moving on thanks to a 3-2 win.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the matchup and explains why he's backing the home side.
Atalanta vs. Lazio Odds
|Over/Under||3 (-136 / +110)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
After a thrilling midweek Coppa Italia quarterfinal matchup that saw Atalanta go through thanks to a 3-2 win, Atalanta and Lazio meet again in Serie A on Sunday morning.
In a matchup that could go a long way in determining who will qualify for the Champions League this season in Serie A, let’s find the betting value.
Some saw the loss of Alejandro “Papu” Gomez as the beginning of the end for this dream run by Atalanta. Gomez, who signed for Sevilla last week, provided creative production that was so vital to this all-attack Atalanta side.
But as it turns out, Atalanta have had little issue replacing him. Striker Josip Ilicic is now doing the ball progression and providing the creative numbers required to make up for the loss of Gomez, and Atalanta’s attack hasn’t missed anything.
Atalanta rank fifth in expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes in Serie A, according to FB Ref, while ranking third defensively. Their pressing numbers aren’t quite as high as past seasons, but almost no one in Europe is pressing quite as much due to fixture congestion and tired legs.
They had a brief two-match blip in which they dropped points, but the performances were still fine. Since a 1-1 draw with Juventus in mid-December, Atalanta has created at least 1.5 xG in each of their eight matches — five wins and three draws. They have a pair of three-goal wins over Roma and league-leading AC Milan during that stretch.
Manager Gian Piero Gasperini’s side is getting 1.65 combined xG and xA from Ilicic (0.81) and Duvan Zapata (0.84). Super-sub Luis Muriel is north of 1.00 xG per 90 minutes, too.
These are just absurd attacking numbers for a team averaging 1.98 xG per 90 minutes.
A look at Lazio’s recent results would suggest they are rolling. Four consecutive wins in Serie A are impressive, but they’ve been running unsustainably hot based on their expected goals results in those matches.
Lazio were unimpressive in wins over Roma, Napoli and Fiorentina, losing the xG battle in all three and struggling to create real scoring chances.
Lazio’s top two strikers, Ciro Immobile and Felipe Caicedo, are two of the best in Serie A. Both are averaging more than 0.45 xG per game, but both are also running way too hot on their finishing of late. Immobile is at 0.86 goals per 90 despite sitting at 0.57 xG per 90. Caicedo is 0.72 goals per 90 this year and 0.48 xG per 90.
It’s a major reason Lazio’s xG difference per 90 minutes suggests they are an average team, and their goal difference is five goals better than it should be. That creates betting value in betting against the side from Rome.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Atalanta are on a great run of performances of late, and Lazio are on a great run of results. I’ll bet on the performances to turn into results for the boys from Bergamo, and take Atalanta on the moneyline at home, while also throwing half of a unit on them to win by multiple goals at +195 on DraftKings.
Pick: Atalanta ML -136 (-150 or better) and Atalanta -1.5 (+195)