Tuesday MLS Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Inter Miami to Rebound Against Philadelphia (July 14)

Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami

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The second match in Group A on Tuesday night provides a lot intrigue as Philadelphia Union takes on David Beckham's Inter Miami.

Philadelphia won their opening match 1-0 against the group favorites NYCFC, while Inter is looking to rebound after losing at the death against Orlando City. Inter will need a result from this match, or their stay in Orlando is over.

Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia went ahead 1-0 on NYCFC after a 63rd minuted stunner by their captain Alejandro Bedoya.

But after the goal, Philadelphia was dominated by NYCFC, as they registered just one shot in the final 34 minutes of the match. On the other side of the ball, the Union held off a steady barrage from NYCFC, who created 8 shots and 0.94 xG in the final 30 minutes of the match.

The Union ended up losing the expected goals battle 0.38 to 1.87, so they were fortunate to get the win.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The Union are coming off their best season in a long time, finishing third in the Eastern Conference and securing their first ever playoff win. Philadelphia is one of the more balanced teams in MLS, ranking ninth in both expected goals for and against.

The Union held onto their main core of players during the offseason and, crucially, brought back the glue of their midfield, Jamiro Monteiro, on a permanent deal.

It'll be interesting to see how the Union can deal with the wealth of attackers Inter Miami possess.

Inter Miami

Inter couldn't hold onto their one goal advantage against Orlando City in their opening match. It's not surprising as these are the hurdles expansion teams must overcome, especially in a tournament like this.

Even though Inter Miami is an expansion team, they are owned by English soccer legend David Beckham. Beckham spent big money bringing a load of talented players, most notably Rodolfo Pizzaro from Monterrey for $12 million.

Pizzaro has been one of the best attacking players in Mexico’s Liga MX for the past few years and plays the key No. 10 role for Inter Miami’s attack. Miami’s roster is a mix of young talented South Americans, blended with veteran MLS players who have won at the highest level.

Beckham also went out and got a big time manager in Diego Alonso, who is a two-time CONCACAF champion with Monterrey.  Having a coach of that caliber is crucial for Inter Miami, as he should be able to put all of their talent to good use.

Analysis

Looking at these two squads from a talent stand point Inter is the better squad. But they lack the cohesiveness that Philadelphia has. However, based on my model, I think there is some value on Inter Miami:

• Philadelphia Union projected odds: +263 (27.53% win probability)
• Inter Miami projected odds: +109 (47.76%)
• Draw projected odds: +305 (24.71%)
• Philadelphia Union projected xG: 1.19
• Inter Miami projected xG: 1.60

Therefore, I am going to back Inter Miami to get at least a draw from this match.