Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Ajax vs. FC Midtjylland (Wednesday, Nov. 25)
Erwin Spek/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Ajax captain Dušan Tadić.
- Ajax are huge favorites to beat FC Midtjylland in their Champions League match on Wednesday afternoon.
- Are oddsmakers overlooking the Danish side in this match?
- Jeremy Pond thinks so and believes Midtjylland is worth a bet in what could be a tighter contest than the odds suggest.
Ajax vs. Midtjylland Odds
|Ajax Odds||-345 [BET NOW]|
|FC Midtjylland Odds||+850 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+500 [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access | fuboTV|
Clubs going in opposite Champions League directions do battle Wednesday when Ajax hosts FC Midtjylland in Group D action at Johan Cruyff Arena.
This is an important match for both teams, who are meeting for the second time this month. Ajax captured a 2-1 road win over Midtjylland in the first of their two legs.
Ajax and Midtjylland are chasing the coveted second spot in the group behind Liverpool. The Reds are on cruise control again, winning all three of their fixtures for nine points thus far.
Ajax and Serie A power Atalanta sit well back of Liverpool on four points each, but the Dutch juggernaut holds the tiebreaker over its Italian counterpart.
On the other side, Midtjylland has had nothing but a good run of bad luck. The Wolves are winless in three matches, meaning they clearly need to take something positive away from their trip to the Netherlands.
That said, let’s see how things shape up heading into this matchup.
Things have been going well for the Dutch giant, both domestically and in this marquee tournament.
Ajax, led by captain Dušan Tadić, sit atop the Eredivisie table with a near-perfect 8-0-1 record for 24 points. The Sons of the Gods are two points clear of Vitesse, and three ahead of Feyenoord in the Dutch top flight.
Most recently, Ajax cruised to a 5-0 shoutout win over Heracles Almelo upon return from the international break. That effort made it four consecutive wins for the club, putting it in prime position heading into this important fixture.
Looking at the statistical data, Ajax has been the definition of flat in the quartet. The Sons of the Gods currently sit on 3.8 expected goals and 3.7 expected goals against, resulting in a +0.1 xGDiff and +0.03 xGDiff/90 minutes. Simply put, their Champions League performances have been just average at best.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
As previously mentioned, the Wolves have struggled thus far and remain desperate for a result that delivers any kind of points to might them alive.
Midtjylland, who sits atop the Danish Superliga table, has won two consecutive matches in league play after that UCL loss to Ajax. The club earned a 2-1 win over AGF this past weekend, which came after 4-0 shutout win over FC Copenhagen two weeks back.
When comparing Midtylland’s data against Ajax, the visiting side’s advanced metrics aren’t even close. Actually, the club has the worst data in the group. Midtjylland has a brutal 2.3 expected goals and even worse 6.1 expected goals against, yielding a -3.8 xGDiff and -1.27 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Bottom line, those numbers won’t get it done against the other Group D clubs.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Everything points to this match going toward Ajax in a runaway.
However, I think this number is too big for the host to cover, largely due to the fact its Danish counterpart played it tight in the first meeting. Also, Midtjylland not only hung with Ajax, it kept it close with Liverpool in a 2-0 defeat.
That said, I am backing Midtjylland to cover the number in this spot and play it with confidence. As much as it looks like this could be a lopsided affair on paper, I truly believe Midtjylland will be ready for a fight on Dutch soil.
I am also going to back the total stay under the number as well. Midtjylland knows it can’t let this game get away from it early, so I expect it to button down in the back and keep this a low-scoring confrontation.
Picks: Midtjylland +2 (-167) | Total Under 3.5 Goals (-136)