Joffe’s World Cup Challenge, Day 4: When In Doubt, Take The Under

The Highlights

• #JOFFIFA managed to go 4-0 on Day 3.
• That confidence is not carrying over into Day 4, especially in the Mexico-Germany match. 

I’m sitting here somewhat dumbfounded because despite still being confused about soccer lines, I went 4-0 Saturday. I’m as shocked as anyone, but I’ll happily take it, especially since we’re only eight matches into this 64-bet journey.

Coming into the World Cup, Cristiano Ronaldo was Dead To Me after he and Real Madrid killed my Liverpool future in the Champions League final. I've partially forgiven him after his hat trick Friday helped me go 1-2 instead of 0-3.

Even if Ronaldo hadn't come through, the day wouldn't have been a total loss, because we did see some of the world's best breakdancing, courtesy of the Iran team.

On Saturday, I actually woke up to watch the Aussies take on France, and I have to pat myself on the back for this one. I was dead set on taking the France -1.5 but decided the juice wasn’t worth it and opted for the over instead. My Australian family should be proud. C’est la vie, mate!

Then there was Messi and Argentina, whom I fully expected to beat Iceland — and do so easily, as I was told — but I really gotta thank my heart for this one. I love this Iceland team and their story and just couldn’t root against them, which is why I took the +1.5 spread. Their dentist coach didn’t let me down, and I am now fully behind Team Iceland!

Eight matches in, and your girl is up more than $40.

Current balance: $541.51

Now for Sunday, when I fully expect to go 0-3. I definitely had a glass of wine or two yesterday, so I had to drink wine as I picked these games today, if for no other reason than to determine if that is, in fact, the secret ingredient here.

I’ll tweet out if I change anything, but here’s where I’m at for now.

Costa Rica vs. Serbia 

8 a.m. ET, FOX

I went back and forth with this one, mostly because I want to root for Costa Rica, but I think a lot of people feel that way thanks to their quarterfinal appearance in the 2014 World Cup. But I've got a feeling about Serbia, so give me the -0.5 or the moneyline. (Again with these damned different lines for no good reason.)

The pick: $10 to win $8.33 on Serbia -0.5 (-120)

Brazil, Germany Drawing Lopsided Action For Sunday’s World Cup Matches

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Mexico vs. Germany

11 a.m. ET, FS1

I don’t think there’s much dispute about which team is stronger here (Germany is +425  to win the World Cup, compared to Mexico at +10,000), but as we’ve already seen in the past few days, that doesn’t mean as much in these first games. I’ll be honest: If I wasn't betting every game, I would probably sit this one out simply because I’m stumped as to how the two best teams in Group F are going to fare against each other. But it’s #JOFFIFA, so I’m going with the under here. I think.

The pick: $10 to win $8.93 on under 2.5, 3 (-112)

Switzerland vs. Brazil

2 p.m. ET, FS1

Brazil are the better team. There’s no question about that. My gut says they will win — my gut is not great, FYI — but -250 is a bit rich for me on the moneyline. So I think I’ll take Brazil -1, -1.5 at -110 odds and hope to at least get some of my money back. Again, not the greatest betting strategy here, but, you know, it's all for the #content.

The pick: $10 to win $9.09 on Brazil -1, 1.5 (-110)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @thespinzone for my final #JOFFIFA picks for Sunday's matches.