World Cup Monday: Lopsided Betting Action on Portugal and Egypt
Monday’s World Cup action brings us the final matches in Group A and B, and public bettors are not expecting upsets.
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Here’s a breakdown of the market for each match and which sides the sharps/public are betting.
Saudi Arabia vs. Egypt, Group A
10 a.m. ET
Saudi Arabia and Egypt have already been eliminated from the World Cup, but this match will decide the country that will be last in the group, which is meaningful to some bettors.
Egypt were a trendy pick to advance, but Mo Salah’s injury hampered those expectations. They were beaten by Uruguay in the opener without him, and lost to Russia 3-1 with him.
Almost everyone anticipated Saudi Arabia to lose all three games, but they did look much better in the last match against Uruguay than they did against Russia in the opener.
While more than 80% of the moneyline bets have come in on Egypt (-108), there’s barely been any line movement.
There’s also a bit of unrest surrounding Salah’s willingness to play, not the best sign for a team already out of it. The public is all over the Pharaohs anyway, but I would be very careful backing them.
Uruguay vs. Russia, Group A
10 a.m. ET
Uruguay and Russia are already through to the round of 16. This meeting will decide which country finishes first in the group. A Russian win or draw would put them on top, while Uruguay would take the throne with a victory.
The South Americans are the slight favorites (+163), but it’s Russia (+215) getting the majority of support. Public bettors also like the over (2).
Iran vs. Portugal, Group B
2 p.m. ET
Iran (+508) need to beat Portugal (-139) to have a realistic chance of advancing, but could get through with a draw and a Spain loss by two or more goals. Public bettors are all over the Europeans in this one, though, with more than 80% of tickets on Portugal. Just 8% of bettors are taking Iran, with 7% on the draw (+272).
Bettors are nearly split on the low total of 2 goals, but the O/U did open at 2.5, so there’s already been movement toward the under.
Spain vs. Morocco, Group B
2 p.m. ET
Morocco have already been eliminated despite a decent effort in the first two matches, while Spain are tied atop Group B with Portugal.
Unsurprisingly, more than 80% of bettors believe in Spain (-287) to win, and more than 75% expect them to win by multiple goals.
Public bettors are also split on this total, but juice has trended toward the over 2.5 recently.