World Cup Thursday: Sharp Bets on Panama-Tunisia Over/Under

Jun 28, 2018 9:06 PM EDT

Thursday’s World Cup action wraps up the group stage of the tournament before the round of 16 begins Saturday. The early matches are Senegal-Colombia and Japan-Poland in Group H, followed by England-Belgium and Panama-Tunisia in Group G.

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Here’s a breakdown of the market for each match and which sides the sharps/public are betting.

Senegal vs. Colombia, Group H

10 a.m. ET

Public bettors feel very confident in Colombia after their strong showing against Poland, and 73% of tickets have come in on Los Cafeteros to get another win against Senegal. They likely need a victory to advance, while Senegal just need a draw.

Despite the lopsided action, the line has only risen from -109 to -114, so sportsbooks haven’t been too fazed. Senegal have also looked good through two matches and are setting up to be a worthy contrarian play to get a win (+362) or draw (+269).

Bettors are forecasting goals, with three out of every four bets on the over (2.5).

Japan vs. Poland, Group H

10 a.m. ET

Before the tournament, few would have predicted Japan to be favored in this matchup. They’re tied at the top of the group and will advance with a win or draw, and could even make it through with a loss.

Oddsmakers list Japan at +164 to get the win, and that’s where 47% of bettors are putting their money. The market has reacted to the 41% of tickets on Poland, though.

There are just 12% of tickets on the draw (+225), which could be a good angle to take considering how even these teams are.

The majority of bettors (79%) are hoping to see the total go over 2.5 goals.

Panama vs. Tunisia, Group G

2 p.m. ET

Panama and Tunisia have already been eliminated, but both will still be playing for pride and for a win to close out the tournament. Tunisia are the odds-on favorites (-115) and are attracting 63% of moneyline bets and 65% spread bets.

Odds have shifted in Panama’s favor since opening, signaling a bit of reverse line movement on the upset.

Bettors are just about 50/50 on the total of 2.5 goals, but the sharper money has been placed on the over.

England vs. Belgium, Group G

2 p.m. ET

It’s probably beneficial for both clubs to play for runners-up in the group since half of the tournament bracket is so stacked already (Argentina-France, Uruguay-Portugal, Brazil-Mexico). The other side, which the second place finisher would enter, consists of Spain-Russia, Croatia-Denmark and Sweden-Switzerland.


Just over half of the wagers are on Belgium (+216) to win, with just 26% on England (+168) and 22% on the draw (+203). It’s a difficult match to bet on since the teams’ intentions are unclear.

Over/under bettors are also split on this total of 2.5 (u-135), even though both teams have been scoring at will.

Follow Dan McGuire on Twitter

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