2019 US Open ATP Monday Betting Preview: Back Carreno Busta or Pella to Advance?
Aaron Doster, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Yoshihito Nishioka
Monday features 32 of the 64 Round 1 ATP singles matches, but the slate kicks off at 11 a.m. E.T., so you’ll need to get your bets in early.
You will also need to lock in your pre-tournament futures or prop wagers by then, and there are some high prices in futures markets worth investing in for the fortnight.
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2019 US Open ATP Futures
Per the Tennis Abstract US Open forecast, one of the big three has an 80% chance of winning the US Open. It would be the fourth title for either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal and the sixth for Roger Federer.
Nadal was given the best part of the draw here, as he wouldn’t have to face Djokovic or Federer until the final, and he successfully defended his Rogers Cup title while trucking arguably the best hard court player this season, Daniil Medvedev, 6-3, 6-0 in the final.
I put one unit on Nadal to win the tournament at +400, and risked 1.5 units at -150 on Nadal to win his quarter; as his projected odds are +313 and -174 based upon the chart above; and I’m only worried about Karen Khachanov in his quarter.
I’m still not sure if Federer is physically past his loss grueling loss to Djokovic in the Wimbledon final, and I took a stab on one of the more underrated hard court players on tour in Alex de Minaur to win his quarter.
The Australian won the Atlanta Open a month ago, and his combined rate of service games held and return games won on hard courts ranks sixth in the past 52 weeks; behind only the big three, Medvedev, and David Goffin.
The third quarter is the most attackable, and I landed on another Australian, Nick Kyrgios — whose listed odds were out of line with his actual talent level.
Tennis Abstract gives Kyrgios a 14% chance of winning his quarter, fair odds of +614, but I was able to lock in multiple wagers as high as +1600, and also locked in outright bets at +6600 and +8000.
If you only bet one future, I would wager on Kyrgios to win his quarter at +1000 or better.
The enigmatic talent can blow through opponents when he is engaged, as he recently showed at the Washington Open with wins over Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Who needs a coach with tennis-savvy fans like this? 😂
— ATP Tour (@ATP_Tour) August 4, 2019
Monday ATP Bets, and Other Matches to Watch
Yoshihito Nishioka (-360) vs. Marcos Giron | O/U: 36.5
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Court 4
- H2H: Nishioka leads 1-0
This has been a breakout season for Nishioka, and he has been in excellent form during the recent hard court stretch, scoring wins over top players such as David Goffin and his compatriot Kei Nishikori.
He was set to rematch with Goffin in the Quarterfinal at the Cincinnati Masters but was unable to play due to food poisoning, and should be fully healthy here after 11 days off.
Giron was granted a wild card entry into the US Open after qualifying for his first main draw at a slam event at Wimbledon. He hasn’t been in the best form since.
The American consistently wins against lower-ranked players at the challenger level and in main draw qualifiers, before getting thumped by tour-level talents in the opening rounds; and I’m not expecting anything different against an in-form and emerging Nishioka.
I took the Japanese on the game spread, and expect him to win in straight sets.
Pablo Carreno Busta (-120) vs. Guido Pella | O/U: 38.5
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Court 6
- H2H: Carreno Busta leads 1-0
Carreno Busta (“PCB”) has the edge in both service and return stats, and won their only head to a head meeting; on a hard court in 2017.
It’s hard to argue with Pella’s form, however.
Considered a clay-court specialist, he reached his first slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon and has followed that up with excellent performances in three straight hard court tournaments — losing to eventual Los Cabos and Rogers Cup champions in Diego Schwartzman and Rafael Nadal, and Cincinnati finalist David Goffin.
PCB had to qualify in Cincinnati and took out both Gilles Simon and John Isner before losing in respectable 6-3, 6-4 fashion to Djokovic. He followed that up with some solid matches in Winston-Salem this past week and will be coming in confident after making his deepest run ever at a major here in 2017 (semi-final).
This is almost too good to be a first-round matchup, and as a result, I think Pella has become a trendy dog; especially after his run at Wimbledon – but the stats point to PCB as a solid favorite.
Other Monday Matches to Watch
I’ll be looking to use Hubert Hurkacz in a parlay, backing the 22-year-old following his win at the Winston-Salem Open. He also has a six-point edge over his opponent, Jeremy Chardy, in his combined rate of service and return games won.
I’ll probably be looking to pair Hurkacz with Alex de Minaur, whose hard court stats I lauded earlier.
Possible longshot to watch includes 16-year-old Zachary Svajda (+1080), who will face lucky loser Paolo Lorezni after Kevin Anderson withdrew from the tournament; and Jenson Brooksby (+310) the only American male to make it through qualifying.
A potential future star in Jannik Sinner (+400) will take on 2016 US Open champion Stan Wawrinka, in a battle between the old and the new guard.
As for some additional upsets that I’m looking to play; Juan Ignacio Londero (+380) could push Sam Querrey after defeating Matteo Berrettini and hanging with Roger Federer in Cincinnati.
At a minimum, I would bet Londero’s game spread and potentially take the over on games or sets.
And I also believe that qualifier Evgeny Donskoy (+323) can at least take a set from Borna Coric, who has been in terrible form of late and tends to drop a set even in the matches that he wins.
Bets (So Far) for August 26
Odds, especially live odds, swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for Monday, August 26.
- Pablo Carreno Busta (-116)
- Yoshihito Nishioka, -5.5 Games (-125)