2020 Australian Open ATP Day 2 Betting Picks & Odds: Will Delbonis’ Fortunes at Majors Change?

2020 Australian Open ATP Day 2 Betting Picks & Odds: Will Delbonis’ Fortunes at Majors Change? article feature image

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Federico Delbonis

Most of Monday was washed out by rain, leaving eight suspended matches and 43 matches waiting to start to squeeze in on Tuesday.

Since the tournament is in Australia, the slate kicks off at 6:30 p.m. E.T. on  Monday evening in North America — so you’ll need to get your bets in early.

After a strong start to day one, let’s examine some first-round bets in the Men’s singles draw.

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Day 2 ATP Bets

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-160) vs. Alexei Popyrin | O/U: 39.5

  • Time: Midnight ET
  • Where: Melbourne Arena
  • H2H: First meeting

Some players become overrated in betting markets due to the “home crowd effect” in Slams, and Alexei Popyrin is no exception.

The 20-year-old finished with a 6-4 record at Slams in 2019, defeating Dominic Thiem to reach the third round in Australia, but his game fell off late in the year and has continued into 2020, with a 2-8 record in main draw matches since the US Open.

This match sets up as a slugfest between two big hitters, but Tsonga has slightly more power and precision in his shots.

Popyrin often looks to dictate, but that leads to streaks of winners or unenforced errors depending on his level. I expect the Frenchman to be the more consistent player in a five-set match, where he has a career 130-46 record (73.9%); including a 122-45 record (73.1%) in Slams.

He’s a much more dangerous first-round opponent than Popyrin is accustomed to, and I would bet Tsonga to -225.

Joao Sousa (+100) vs. Federico Delbonis | O/U: 38.5

  • Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Court 13
  • H2H: Tied 3-3

Delbonis won their most recent matchup in July and also has the only win on a hard surface in this head-to-head, but this is the first time that the pair have met in a Slam.

Sousa owns slightly better metrics on hard surfaces, which hold up in a limited sample over the past 52 weeks where he owns a 9-15 record on hards with a 93.4 hold/break figure; compared to a 2-7 record and 92 combined number for Delbonis.

Much more importantly, Sousa is a respectable 29-31 (48.3%) for his career in best of five matches, including a 25-29 (46.3%) record at Slams and 16-14 between the two hard court majors. He is 87-110 (44.2%) in Slam sets.

Meanwhile, Delbonis is an abysmal 7-24 (22.6%) at Slams with a 39-80 (32.8%) record in sets.

Perhaps the Portuguese struggles with Argentine’s left hand (26-34 career vs. lefties; 1-9 in the past 52 weeks), but the best of five format and faster surface suits the former’s game much better.

Surprisingly, the line has only moved towards Delbonis in this match since I bet it, but I would take Sousa down to -130 if it flips back the other way.

Other Matches to Watch

Cam Norrie has lost to some much lower-ranked players to start the year, and he’s just 4-9 overall at Slams, but his best form is enough to beat Pierre-Huges Herbert. However, all of the value has been sucked out of that line by this point.

Albert Ramos Vinolas will look to break a six-match losing streak at Slam events against local hope Alex Bolt — who made the third round last year. Ramos is better on the clay, but he looked much more comfortable on hard surfaces over the past year (10-10 record), and I feel that he should be a pricier favorite.

Jeremy Chardy has split a couple of meetings with David Goffin, beating the Belgian in straight sets at Roland Garros in 2015, but losing in similar fashion at Wimbledon last year. Goffin looked on his game at the ATP Cup and only improves at Slams (63.4% win rate), but the Frenchman is rarely an easy out, and his odds were enticing.

Like Goffin, Casper Ruud was similarly impressive at the ATP Cup, and the youngster might jump up a level in 2020. But clay remains his best surface, and Egor Gerasimov will come in confident and loose on his best surface after finally winning his first main draw Slam match at the US Open. An upset here wouldn’t surprise me.

Fernando Verdasco might be playing through injury — appearing to tweak something in the later stages of his Jan. 10 match in Qatar, before withdrawing from the Adelaide Open four days later. Lucky Loser Evgeny Donskoy can take advantage — he’s 4-0in the first round in Australia when he has qualified for the main draw.

I also played a parlay involving Dominik Koepfer and Nick Kyrgios, two players whom I expect to win comfortably and at a combined rate of over 80% — implied odds of -400. I would lay -150 or better to pair them together.

As for some matches that I didn’t bet …

Ivo Karlovic always has a puncher’s chance on hard surfaces with his big serve, but Vasek Pospisil has a 5-1 record in the head to head and is one of my dark horses to make a run in this tournament. Still, Dr. Ivo provides value at over 3-1.

Aljaz Bedene should win comfortably against Aussie James Duckworth, but Bedene is 0-7 in Australia and 10-26 overall at Slams. I projected him as a more significant favorite, but he’s also not someone that I can bet.

And I feel similarly about Peter Gojowyck, who is 1-6 in Australia and 4-14 overall in Slams. He looked good in qualifiers, and I think his odds should be closer to -300 than -150 (current -170), but his history tells me to stay away.

Bets (So Far) for January 20-21

Odds, especially live odds, swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for January 20.

  • Joao Sousa (-120, 1 unit)
  • Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (-160, 1 unit)
  • Jeremy Chardy (+355, 0.5 units)
  • Evgensky Donskoy (+340, 0.5 units)
  • Egor Gerasimov (+228, 0.5 units)
  • Cam Norrie (+136, 0.5 units)
  • Albert Ramos Vinolas (-167, 0.5 units)
  • Parlay (-138): Dominik Koepfer / Nick Kyrgios (1 unit)

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