Betting Value on Day 7 at the Aussie Open
Presse Sports-USA TODAY Sports
Uncle Fabio sniped us in the fifth, and Thiem had too much class last night. On the women’s side, Kerber did assault Sharapova. Moving on to Day 7 at the Australian Open. With 16 players remaining, let’s take a quick look at potential value on the ATP side in Melbourne.
Marin Čilić (-400) Pablo Carreño Busta
Judging by the price tag, oddsmakers apparently feel pretty good about Marin Čilić ahead of his 4R contest vs. Pablo Carreño. However, if you look at Čilić’s last three Australian Open exits, two came at the hands of defensive counterpunchers (2016 vs. Roberto Bautista Agut; 2014 vs. Gilles Simon).
Čilić will want to avoid a grind-it-out battle against a player like PCB. If you remember back to the US Open last year, against a similar player (Diego Schwartzman), Čilić amassed 80 — yep, EIGHTY — unforced errors over the course of four sets. In contrast, I think the Spaniard will welcome an opponent such as Čilić, who he can counterpunch against.
Over the course of his slump (losing 12 of 13 matches stretching back to the USO), Carreño struggled to put away matches on his own terms — lacking the true offensive weapons of most Top 10 players. But, against a player like Čilić (who hits incredibly big and flat), PCB can absorb his pace off the ground and turn it into his own attack.
Head to Head: The two have only met once over the years: 2016 in Basel, when Čilić won in straight sets (6-0, 7-6). During that tournament, however, Čilić was in the midst of one of his “hot streaks,” which saw him eventually win that title at the Swiss Indoors.
PCB looks like he has ended his post-USO-breakthrough slump, as he has recently returned to the level we saw from him throughout his run last year in Flushing. At this price, the value sits with PCB.
Rafa Nadal (-1667) vs. Diego Schwartzman
Rafa Nadal struts into this match having lost just 21 games in his first three (best of five) matches. We should see more of the same today for the Spaniard, but not much to consider at this price tag.
Under 30 games actually warrants consideration. Schwartzman should play a competitive-enough match to keep Nadal engaged on every single point (similar to Damir Dzumhur) which won’t bode well for the Argentine.
Head to Head: Nadal owns a 3-0 career h2h against Schwartzman (2-0 on HC) and has never dropped a set.
Rafa in a laugher, but no value at that number. Take a look at the under.
Kyle Edmund (-278) vs. Andreas Seppi
Another difficult match to gauge from a capping standpoint. While it’s pretty clear Kyle Edmund is the more polished player, fatigue has to be a concern for the Brit ahead of his 4R match.
Edmund played 13 sets in the first three rounds, including his most recent five-setter in extreme heat against Basilashvili. But Andreas Seppi won’t be exactly fresh ahead of this one either, coming through a marathon in his last match against Karlovic. If Edmund struggles physically, as he did at times in his match against Niko Basilashvili, Seppi can advance to his first Australian Open quarterfinal. If Edmund has recovered, however, he should advance to his first Grand Slam quarterfinal.
Head to Head: Edmund won their only match; 2016 in Antwerp (6-4, 6-4). The conditions in this match will suit Seppi far more than the slower indoor conditions of Antwerp (which Edmund prefers).
Slight value with Seppi here, given Edmund’s laborious path thus far in Melbourne. However, I’m not running well enough at the moment to roll the dice on energy levels — so I will pass.
Nick Kyrgios (-154) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Nick Kyrgios has been “all business” so far in Melbourne. Grigor Dimitrov, in contrast, has yet to look overly-convincing — being pushed to five by Mackie McDonald and struggling in his last round match against Andrey Rublev — and, unless he raises his level tonight, I fancy Kyrgios to get through this match.
Dimitrov’s level has come and gone over the course of matches at this tournament — and if it happens to “go” tonight, the big serve of Kyrgios will surely make it hard for the Bulgarian to play catch-up (like he did vs. McDonald and Rublev). Kyrgios, all tournament long, has kept his foot on the gas with a lead.
Kyrgios served up 28 aces in his last match against Jo Tsonga — Dimitrov, on the other hand, has hit 28 aces ALL TOURNAMENT. This seems like a relatively low number for the Bulgarian, who finished last season 9th on Tour in aces. Unless he can up this number tonight, Kyrgios will receive a boost from the increased number of free points he’ll get on his serve. Factor in the home crowd, and I like his chances of advancing to his second Australian Open QF.
Head to Head: Dimitrov leads the H2H 2-1 (all on hard courts), although Kyrgios won the most recent: earlier this season in Brisbane.
I fancy what appears to be a more mature and focused Kyrgios. Over 41 games also presents some value.
Hitters: Kyrgios/Wozniacki ML parlay +100
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