I know college basketball is in full swing, but don’t forget about Indian Wells betting on Thursday (through next weekend).

In today’s piece, I will take a deeper look at all four quarters, projecting the quarterfinal matchup for each, while noting any futures I fancy. I will close with a bet I like for an individual match today.


Indian Wells, California | March 8-18

Site: Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Surface: Hard
Balls: Penn ATP
Prize Money: $7,972,535

The main draw is comprised of 96 players, with the 32 seeded players each receiving a bye into the second round. Due to the draw size, tournament length and pageantry surrounding the event, many consider Indian Wells to be the unofficial fifth Grand Slam on the tennis calendar.

Undeterred by having the best-of-three-set format (instead of five) and offering half the ranking points of a Slam, it’s hard to ignore the Slam-like buzz each year in early March when the BNP Paribas Open hits the California desert.

Having said that, that buzz is slightly subdued this year, as a number of the top players will sit out with injuries. Former Grand Slam champions Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka will all miss this year’s tournament. It is at least nice to see the return of another major champ (and former World No. 1), Novak Djokovic.


2010: Ivan Ljubičić (d.) Andy Roddick
2011: Novak Djokovic (d.) Rafa Nadal
2012: Roger Federer (d.) John Isner
2013: Rafa Nadal (d.) Juan Martin del Potro
2014: Novak Djokovic (d.) Roger Federer
2015: Novak Djokovic (d.) Roger Federer
2016: Novak Djokovic (d.) Milos Raonic
2017: Roger Federer (d.) Stan Wawrinka


No. 1 Rafael Nadal (hip), No. 7 David Goffin (eye), No. 21 Stan Wawrinka (knee), No. 28 Andy Murray (hip), No. 34 Richard Gasquet (knee), No. 35 Jo Tsonga (knee).


The chart below contains the 30 lowest futures odds to win the tournament. Considering Federer has a 92.9% win percentage on hard courts since 2017, it shouldn’t surprise many to see him as the odds-on favorite. Roger just needs to reach the semis to maintain his No. 1 World ranking. Djokovic is listed as the second favorite at +650. Fresh off a title in Acapulco, Juan Martin del Potro is tied with Grigor Dimitrov as the third favorite at +1600.

Quarter One

Seeded Players: No. 1 Roger Federer, No. 5 Dominic Thiem, No. 12 Tomas Berdych, No. 16 Fabio Fognini, No. 20 Adrian Mannarino, No. 23 Hyeon Chung, No. 25 Filip Krajinovic, No. 30 Pablo Cuevas

Form Check

  1. Roger Federer ↑
  2. Dominic Thiem
  3. Tomas Berdych
  4. Fabio Fognini ↑
  5. Adrian Mannarino 
  6. Hyeon Chung
  7. Filip Krajinovic ↑
  8. Pablo Cuevas

Unsurprisingly, I like Federer to survive this quarter of the draw. Outside of Thiem (on his best day), I’m not sure any of the seeded players have the current form and/or consistency required to take out Roger. Berdych has defeated Federer six times in his career but has lost his last nine against the Swiss Maestro. I don’t fancy the Czech player’s chances at breaking that streak this week.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
Follow Daniel J. Scotti on Twitter