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Thursday ATP Betting Preview: More Halle Magic From Florian Mayer?

Jun 20, 2018 5:46 PM EDT

Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Florian Mayer

The Highlights

  • Tennis action continues on the grass from Halle and Queen’s Club with quarterfinal action underway Thursday.
  • Our first best bet of the day comes at Halle in a match between Florian Mayer (-125) and Andreas Seppi (+105)
  • We will head to Queen’s Club for our second hitter in an all-French affair between Julien Benneteau (-125) and Adrian Mannarino (+105).

Our Wednesday hitter, Daniil Medvedev, let us down at the Queen’s Club, as Jeremy Chardy simply outclassed him.

Through Chardy’s first five service games, Medvedev failed to win a single point — and the Frenchman continued his white-hot form by serving his way to a straight-set victory.

However, over in Halle, Yuichi Sugita took down Domi Thiem on the grass — as we suspected — so hopefully some of you reaped the benefits of the “fade Thiem on Grass” wagering strategy.

With another seven matches to choose from on Thursday in Halle and London, I’ve got my eyes on two bets that I think hold value on the lawn.

Florian Mayer (-130) vs. Andreas Seppi (+105)

Where: Halle, Germany
Surface: Grass
When: Not before 11 a.m. ET
H2H: Seppi leads 4-2 (1-1 on grass)

This will be the last “hoorah” for Mayer at Halle, a tournament that he has dominated in the past. In his last six appearances at Halle, Mayer owns a 13-4 record — with three of those four losses coming at the hands of the King of grass, Roger Federer. (The fourth loss came against another solid grass-courter in Richard Gasquet, whom Mayer defeated on Tuesday.)

Last year, Mayer defeated Ben Paire and Lucas Pouille, both decent wins on grass, before losing to Roger in the quarterfinals. And, in 2016, Mayer won this tournament.

In Flo’s last rodeo in Halle before retirement, I like him to go out with a bang. On Thursday, he’ll square off against Italian Andreas Seppi — who straight-setted compatriot Matteo Berrettini in his first match here. I watched some of the replay of that one and wasn’t overly impressed by Seppi’s performance.

The Italian can run hot and cold — and, while Seppi got through Lucky Loser Berrettini in straights, I didn’t come away feeling as if he was about to rip off one of his hot streaks. Berrettini is hardly an established grass player — having never played on a grass court professionally, before the Halle quallies — and he looked uncomfortable on the surface.

Mayer, in contrast, will no doubt look at home on the grass of Halle. And I expect his experience — and craftiness — to get him to the finish line at a tourney he fancies. Mayer loves to use double-handed drop shots early and often. That should really frustrate Seppi, who likes to settle in behind the baseline. With the unpredictability of Mayer likely to disrupt Seppi’s rhythm — I think Mayer holds the edge in this matchup.

Especially with the German crowd urging their man on.

The Pick: Florian Mayer (-130)

Julien Benneteau (-125) vs. Adrian Mannarino

Where: London, UK
When: Not before 11:30 a.m. ET
H2H: Benneteau leads 3-0

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