2020 Australian Open ATP Day 7 Betting Picks & Odds: Who Has the Edge in Cilic vs. Raonic?
Clive Brunskill/Getty Images. Pictured: Marin Cilic
Sunday features the first four ATP fourth-round matchups. Still, since the tournament is played in Australia, the slate kicks off at 9 p.m. E.T. on Saturday evening in North America — so you’ll need to get your bets in early.
Let’s examine all four of today’s matchups.
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Marin Cilic (+170) vs. Milos Raonic | O/U: 45
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Margaret Court Arena
- H2H: Cilic leads 2-1
The last time that these two played came in 2017 on clay, and before that 2013 — so the head-to-head is rather irrelevant.
Both have had excellent results in Melbourne, with Cilic reaching the final in 2018, and Raonic losing in the 2016 semifinals, and each has excelled in best of five matchups – with either winning more than 70% of the time.
Raonic owns the better stats over the past year, but Cilic has looked back to peak form at various points throughout his recent matches; particularly while thrashing Roberto Bautista-Agut 6-0 in the third set of their round three encounter.
He should be more fatigued after back-to-back five-set matches, while Raonic has yet to drop a set and never faced a break point against Stefanos Tsitsipas, but this doesn’t set up as one to tire him out much more – with a lot of quick points in store.
Cilic has typically excelled in these types of matchups.
Against the top current servers on tour, a group I defined including John Isner, Ivo Karlovic, Nick Kyrgios, Sam Querrey, Tennys Sandgren, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Cilic has compiled a 28-10 record, including a 9-0 record in Slam matches. Though he is 1-9 against Roger Federer.
While I don’t necessarily agree with the above projection, with Cilic a significant favorite, I certainly think that this one will be closer than the odds suggest.
I see this matchup as more of a coin-flip and would bet Cilic down to +150.
Novak Djokovic (-2500) vs. Diego Schwartzman | O/U: 30
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Rod Laver Arena
- H2H: Djokovic leads 2-0
Schwartzman took the Djoker to a deciding set at the 2017 French Open, but the Serbian has looked in top form this tournament, dominating on serve while increasing the speed of his second serve.
Perhaps Schwartzman could actually make Djokovic work for it, whereas third-round opponent Yoshithito Nishoka looked fully disinterred in his encounter with the World No. 2.
I considered betting the over on games but ultimately decided against it.
Fabio Fognini (-167) vs. Tennys Sandgren | O/U: 39.5
- Time: 12:00 a.m. ET
- Where: Melbourne Arena
- H2H: Fognini leads 2-1
This is a rematch from Wimbledon, which Sandgren won in straight sets, but Fognini has the two wins on Clay and they have never made on a hard surface.
The American is always difficult to handicap because he plays better than his metrics would otherwise indicate, and he’s been playing some aggressive, impressive tennis in what has become his best Slam.
Fognini has taken money against him in each match, closing as a decent underdog against Guido Pella before winning with ease.
This one seems destined for four or five long sets, but the total also seems a tick high which is why I laid off.
Sandgren looks like a viable upset candidate, but I rarely gauge him right.
Roger Federer (-665) vs. Marton Fucscovics | O/U: 35.5
- Time: 4:15 a.m. ET
- Where: Rod Laver Arena
- H2H: Federer leads 2-0
After squeaking by John Millman, Federer will face more baseline rallies against an in-form Fucscovics. The question is whether he is able to rest and recover well enough in a short period of time, at the age of 38, in order to withstand another challenge.
I would make Millman a small favorite over Fucscovics in a head-to-head, however, and feel that he had a better chance of knocking off Roger. Federer was a -2500 favorite against the Aussie, but his price has taken a significant haircut after surviving that third-round battle.
I thought about a play on the game spread at -6 but ultimately decided to pass on this matchup given Federer’s recent history in Australia. However, there is clear line value on the Swiss.
Bets (So Far) for Jan. 25-26
Odds swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for Jan. 25.
- Marin Cilic (+166, 1 unit)