Dominic Thiem vs. Alexander Zverev Betting Odds & Pick: Who Will Advance To the 2020 Australian Open Final?

Friday features the remaining ATP semifinal matchup, beginning at 3:30 a.m. ET on Friday morning in North America — so you'll need to get your bets in early.

Let's examine today's matchup, the ninth career meeting between Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev, with the winner set to play Novak Djokovic in the final.

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Dominic Thiem (-204) vs. Alexander Zverev | Over/Under: 40

• Time: 3:30 a.m. ET
• Where: Rod Laver Arena
• H2H: Thiem leads 6-2

Betting Odds History

Match Analysis

There's no doubting that both men will relish this opportunity to win one match to make a Slam final — with Zverev appearing in his maiden Slam semifinal and Thiem having ousted Rafa Nadal for the first time at a major, neither man has the unfortunate task of facing a Big Three member to get there.

Zverev seems to be the one more likely to become unnerved by the stage — and Thiem should prove his stiffest test yet.

He was under relentless pressure from Nadal in his quarterfinal match and still managed to pull out all three tiebreaks — proof of the Austrian's mettle.

Zverev looked shaky in his first set loss to Stan Wawrinka (1-6) in the quarterfinal, but has otherwise has looked loose during the fortnight, a surprising turn after playing what the German described as "horrible" tennis at the ATP Cup just a few weeks ago.

He's followed-up from that poor display with his best-ever Slam result while dropping just the one set.

Conversely, Thiem looked out of form early in the tournament, but quickly split with his new coach, Thomas Muster — the only previous Austrian semifinalist at the Australian Open — and he has looked much more at ease since.

Thiem has defeated each of the Big Three on hard courts since mid-November and is 7-2 against them over the past year, perhaps indicating that he's ready to breakthrough.

He also has much more experience than Zverev with this much pressure on the line — having now made five Slam semifinals (four at Roland Garros) — and he owns a distinct advantage in the head-to-head history including a 2-1 record on hard surfaces.

Is Thiem poised to make his third Slam final and challenge Novak Djokovic for his maiden title? Or will Zverev, and his big serve, continue on the best run of his career?

The two keys to this matchup are second-service points and Thiem's potential fatigue.

The Austrian has played 252 extra points, 35 additional games, and been on the court for four hours longer than Zverev during the fortnight.

Thiem is one of the fittest players on tour, however, and he should be fresher to start the year with a reduced schedule. I'm not as worried about his 26-year-old legs giving-out as I was for Roger Federer, Nadal, Wawrinka, and some of the older players on tour who faltered after long matches in this draw.

Zverev is landing his first serve at a high rate and has not had to play many second service points, but that area of his game remains a concern as we saw against Wawrinka (8/19 points won, 42%).

And though he's committed just 11 double faults in five matches, his confidence can go, and the yips can popup again at a moment's notice.

As a result, I'm finding it hard to back Zverev, even as a reasonably priced underdog in here, but I also don't want to be entirely against him.

Both men should have their moments in this one, and while a set-spread bet on Thiem -1.5 (-130) or exact result on Thiem 3-1 (+320) caught my attention, I settled on something a bit safer.

Usually, I'm hunting for plus-money, but I'm most-comfortable betting over 3.5 sets here up to -200, risking a full unit to win a half.

Bets (So Far) for Jan. 31

Odds swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for Jan. 31.

• Over 3.5 Sets (-200, Risk 1 unit)

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