WTA Wimbledon First Round Betting Preview: Analyzing All 32 Matches on Monday
Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY SPORTS. Pictured: Caroline Garcia
- Make sure you get your bets in ahead of the start of Wimbledon on Monday morning at 5 a.m. ET in London.
- Brett Farrenkopf examines all 32 scheduled women's matches on day one and offers his seven favorite picks.
Betting action at Wimbledon will begin on Monday (6 a.m. ET) on a day that should feature plenty of competitive matches and big names on the marquee.
Let’s look at all 32 scheduled Monday matches and close with a summary of my seven WTA wagers.
If you are new to betting on tennis check out our Tennis Betting 101 article here.
Elina Svitolina (-350) vs Daria Gavrilova (+290)
My line: Svitolina -275
Both players come into Wimbledon in very poor form.
Svitolina battled a knee issue throughout the spring and is 0-2 on grass this year. Gavrilova also has been battling an injury. She’s 2-2 on grass but hasn’t faced anyone at Svitolina’s level.
Svitolina leads the head-to-head 6-3 but they’ve never met on grass.
I think this line is a bit steep with Svitolina’s injury concerns and form. but I have no interest in backing Gavrilova’s current form.
Margarita Gasparyan (-125) vs Anna-Lena Friedsam (+105)
My line: Gasparyan -110
Both competitors are making their first trip to Wimbleson since 2016 but they each have enjoyed some quiet success on grass this year despite being regular underdogs.
Gasparyan upset Viktoria Kuzmova, Svitolina and Katerina Siniakova — while Friedsam upset Fiona Ferro and Anett Kontaveit in Eastbourne last week. Friedsam has won all three prior meetings but none came on grass.
Friedsam has had superior past grass success, but Gasparyan’s flat ground strokes should suit her well on this surface.
Marie Bouzkova (-127) vs Mona Barthel (+107)
My line: Bouzkova -115
This matchup features a pair of lower-tier players and has the looks of a true coin flip.
Bouzkova enters as a lucky loser after losing to Ana Bogdan in the third round of qualifying. Meanwhile, Barthel has had a disappointing grass court season (0-2), but the German can lean on three career wins at Wimbledon.
Despite a nifty 5-3 record on grass this year, Bouzkova doesn’t have any notable wins. She also lost in qualifying to Ana Bogdan 6-3, 6-1 as a -165 favorite.
Barthel boasts the better grass court resume and the experience edge — but Bouzkova has more talent and current form.
Maria Sakkari (-257) vs Bernarda Pera (+217)
My line: Sakkari -300
Sakkari is just 1-2 on grass in 2019 but both losses came against ranked players in Naomi Osaka and Johanna Konta. Meanwhile, Pera is grass-averse as illustrated by her career 4-5 career record on this surface, including 0-1 at Wimbledon.
Sakkari had a decent Wimbledon run last year before losing to Konta in the third round. She’s incredibly streaky but her recent form tells me she should advance.
Petra Martic (-224) vs Jennifer Brady (+194)
My line: Martic -250
Martic comes into Wimbledon in solid form. After reaching the French Open quarterfinals, she made the semifinals in Birmingham. Martic has never been that proficient on grass, but you can’t ignore her current form.
Brady is a big topspin hitter that can get results on grass. She made the second round in each of the past two years at Wimbledon.
However, Martic has the experience edge and the ability to withstand potential Brady hot runs. I don’t see much value on either side — but I do fancy over 21 games. I think Brady can take a set or at least force a tiebreak.
My Bet: Over 21
Anastasia Potapova (-143) vs Jil Teichmann (+123)
My line: Potapova -165
Former Wimbledon Junior champ Potapova receives a beatable first-round opponent in Teichmann, who will compete in her first Wimbledon and third ever grass event.
Teichman’s lone grass win (1-2) of the season came against World No. 229 Fanny Stollar in Mallorca qualifying.
Potapova is the deserved favorite, but her form is a bit disconcerting. In her lone grass event, she lost in qualifying to Gabriela Dabrowski in straight sets. And since March, Potapova is 3-8 on Tour. Perhaps a return to the grass of Wimbledon can do her wonders.
Despite some struggles, I will back the Russian; Teichmann’s game just doesn’t suit this surface.
Potapova as a parlay piece
Zarina Diyas (-217) vs Danielle Collins (+187)
My line: Diyas -240
Collins enters Wimbledon with no form and retired in the first set in Eastbourne last week. Not only does she have form and fitness questions on a surface she doesn’t fancy, she has a difficult first-round opponent in grass court specialist Diyas.
Though Diyas has not had a great 2019 grass court campaign, she’s advanced past the second round in three of four Wimbledon trips.
Anastasija Sevastova (-545) vs Kristie Ahn (+440)
My line: Sevastova -475
Sevastova had a very promising grass run against quality opponents in Mallorca before losing to eventual winner Sonya Kenin in three sets. She has never performed well at Wimbledon but has made three career grass finals.
Ahn has an impressive 19-11 career grass record but against mostly inferior competition. She looked impressive in qualifying but Sevastova is a major step up in class.
Marketa Vondrousova (-558) vs Madison Brengle (+453)
My line: Vondrousova -490
After a career run in Paris, teenage Czech Vondrousova looks to continue her rise in the WTA rankings She is 0-2 at Wimbledon but did make the semifinals as a Junior.
Brengle is a competent grass court player. The American went 4-3 on grass this season but all in ITF level events.
Vondrousova’s style is not as conducive on grass compared to clay or slower hard courts. That said, she has immensely more talent that Brengle and should move on.
Karolina Muchova (-172) vs Aleksandra Krunic (+152)
My line: Muchova -170
Krunic, who has some prior grass court success, should welcome a trip to Wimbledon after an abysmal year. She will try to improve her horrid 6-14 record in 2019 but will have to do so against a tough first-round opponent.
In her only Wimbledon tune up match, Muchova took a set off eventual champion Alison Riske in Hertogenbosch. Despite not having much grass form, her solid game really suits any surface.
Krunic can pull off this minor upset if she can find her game but who knows when she will again.
Caty McNally (-162) vs Heather Watson (+142)
My line: McNally -145
McNally, an up-and-coming teen who didn’t drop a set in qualifying, will face Britain’s own Heather Watson in what looks like a competitive match.
McNally possesses more talent but this will be her first Grand Slam main draw match. The moment could get to her — especially since the crowd will be against her.
When the draw came out, I wanted to back McNally after seeing her in qualifying. She is simply the better player and Watson is not in peak form. Unfortunately, this number is now too high.
Anett Kontaveit (-248) vs Shelby Rogers (+208)
My line: Kontaveit -265
This is a tough match to cap.
Kontaveit has more talent and a history of performing well on grass. However, she’s in career-worst form. Since losing to Petra Kvitova in the May Stuttgart Final, she’s just 2-5 overall.
Still, considering her past grass class, the 2017 Hertogenbosch winner can clearly make a run if she can shake her recent woes.
Rogers comes into Wimbledon with questions as well after retiring against Bencic two weeks ago due to injury. That happened after she returned in April after a year layoff post-surgery. I don’t know if this latest injury is related but it’s worrisome.
Su-Wei Hsieh (-133) vs Jelena Ostapenko (+113)
My line: Hsieh -115
Trying to figure out which Ostapenko will show up is nearly impossible. It doesn’t help that she retired mid-match with a leg injury just last week.
Prior to that setback, the former French Open champ did show some signs of solid form with wins over Konta and Sloane Stephens on grass — her best surface.
Hsieh has always been consistent on grass. Her tricky game forces a lot of errors from her opponent, which should scare the error-prone Ostapenko. She also likes to take balls early, which works well on this surface. Hsieh won their only career meeting at the 2016 Australian Open.
Perhaps someone knows more about Ostapenko’s fitness level as the line has moved drastically since the Latvian opened as a favorite.
Kirsten Flipkens (-421) vs Dalila Jakupovic (+351)
My line: Flipkens -475
Grass court specialist Flipkens gets a relatively easy Round 1 opponent in Jakupovic, who has never won a main draw match at Wimbledon.
Flipkens has only lost in the first round twice in 10 trips here, including a 2013 semifinals appearance.
Flipkens as a parlay piece
Monica Puig (-405) vs Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (+335)
My line: Puig -375
Schmiedlova has never won a main draw match at Wimbledon. She fancies clay, not grass. While Puig hasn’t won a match at Wimbledon since 2013, her power style suits this surface.
Karolina Pliskova (-3250) vs Lin Zhu (+1790)
My line: Pliskova -3500
Not much to say here. Fresh off a dominating performance in Eastbourne, Pliskova should roll.
Simona Halep (-654) vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+504)
My line: Halep -575
Grass is by far the worst surface for Halep, who has only made the semifinals once here in 2014. Last year, she was upset by +428 underdog Su-Wei Hsieh.
In her only grass warm-up event, Halep defeated Hsieh and Hercog before losing to Angelique Kerber in straight sets.
While she doesn’t love grass, her path to the fourth round looks relatively easy.
However, don’t sleep on Sasnovich, who sprung a massive first-round upset here last year against tournament favorite Petra Kvitova. Despite not having much grass court success or any current form, Sasnovich is always dangerous since she tends to go for winners and plays with little margin.
If peaking, Sasnovich can shock London once again.
Mihaela Buzarnescu (-136) vs Jessica Pegula (+116)
My line: Buzarnescu -145
Buzarnescu has yet to reprise her career year from 2018. She went 9-4 on grass last year which included a third-round loss to Karolina Pliskova at Wimbledon. She’s 0-2 this year but did lose to two respectable opponents in Ostapenko and Pliskova.
Pegula is having a very nice first full-year on Tour but could struggle with Buzarnescu — who likes to move her opponent around the court and put various amounts of spin on the ball. In contrast, the more straightforward Pegula tries to hit opponents off the court.
I think the craftiness of Buzarnescu will prevail.
Victoria Azarenka (-248) vs Alize Cornet (+208)
My line: Azarenka -250
Azarenka is looking to jump start what has been a relatively tricky 2019 campaign so far. She only played one warm-up grass match (tough three-set loss to Garcia). However, her abundance of previous grass experience should offset the lack of prep.
Vika will face the always entertaining Alize Cornet, who has lost all five career clashes with Azarenka. Cornet will fight and should be confident after a 4-2 grass swing, but I think she’ll fall short in what should be a long, grinding match.
Ajla Tomljanovic (-133) vs Darya Kasatkina (+113)
Kasatkina’s disastrous 2019 season will continue at Wimbledon where she must deal with the pressure of defending the points from last year’s quarterfinal run.
Her drop in form from that run (which included a win over current No. 1 Ashleigh Barty) to now has been stunning. Kasatkina is just 7-12 on the year and lost her only grass match against Andrea Petkovic. Her confidence is at an all-time low.
Tomljanovic has had a decent 2019 campaign on Tour. She had a satisfactory but not spectacular grass swing with a 3-3 record, including a win over Monica Puig.
Kasatkina won their only prior meeting but that came on the Russian’s best surface (clay) in 2018 when she was in career form.
Tomljanovic is just 1-3 in the main draw at Wimbledon, but she’s currently playing at a much higher level than Kasatkina.
My bet: Tomljanovic -133
Madison Keys (-1330) vs Luksika Kumkhum (+880)
My line: Keys -1500
Not much to say about this encounter. Keys is just a much better player and playing on her preferred service. If she doesn’t hit 50 unforced errors, she should roll.
Polona Hercog (-127) vs Viktoria Kuzmova (+107)
My line: Hercog -139
Hercog has always intrigued me as a player and she’s had decent past results at Wimbledon — notably a third-round appearance 2017 after coming through qualifying.
Kuzmova is no slouch and has a very powerful game. The 21-year-old Slovak has every chance to win this match but she didn’t look great in her only two grass matches leading up to Wimbledon (0-2) and is 0-1 lifetime in the main draw in London.
I think Hercog’s wide arsenal of shots can cause problems for Kuzmova, who tends to struggle with players that have variety like Hercog.
My Bet: Hercog -127
Venus Williams (-330) vs Cori Gauff (+275)
My line: Venus -350
For Americans, this is easily the most intriguing first-round matchup.
The 39-year-old five time champion versus the 15-year-old phenom who rolled through qualifying, losing only 14 games without dropping a set.
Gauff also made the quarterfinals here as a Junior last year. However, Venus is such a massive step up in competition; it’s difficult to see the teenager pulling off the upset.
Venus had an efficient warm-up event in Birmingham, losing in the quarters to eventual champ Ash Barty. As long as she’s fit, she should move past the American teenage sensation.
Aryna Sabalenka (-212) vs Magdalena Rybarikova (+182)
My line: Sabalenka -178
There are two unseeded players the seeds generally want to avoid each year at Wimbledon:
- Alison Riske
- Magdalena Rybarikova
Unfortunately for the talented Sabalenka, she drew one of the ultimate grass-court specialists.
Rybarikova didn’t have her greatest grass court run but did make the final in Surbiton. I’m ignoring the Nottingham retirement due to the rain forcing the tourney indoors. She’s always dangerous at Wimbledon where she made the semis two years ago.
After a fairly disappointing 2019 season, Sabalenka finally flashed a bit of form in Eastbourne. She beat defending champion Caroline Wozniacki and lost in three competitive sets to Kiki Bertens in the quarterfinals.
When Sabalenka is at her best, she’s arguably a top-five player in the World. But she’s just not playing at the level we saw in 2018.
My Bet: Rybarikova +182
Caroline Wozniacki (-665) vs Sara Sorribes Tormo (+615)
My line: Wozniacki -585
Despite being known as a clay-court specialist, Sorribes Tormo has surprising results the past two years on grass. She doesn’t always face players at the level of Wozniacki but an 11-5 grass record since 2018 is still impressive.
After being hindered by injury for most of the year, Wozniacki finally looked healthy in Eastbourne. She had wins over Kirsten Flipkens and Andrea Petkovic before losing in three tight sets to Sabalenka.
I have Wozniacki as a shorter favorite but don’t think this is the right spot to fade her.
Veronika Kudermetova (-174) vs Ysaline Bonaventure (+154)
My line: Kudermetova -141
I’m looking forward to this one. Kudermetova is having a career year at age 22, while Bonaventure is also having a very solid season, and her game excels on grass (although this will be her first main draw match at Wimbledon).
Kudermetova is 5-2 on grass this year with both losses coming against some of the better grass court players in Bencic and Riske. Bonaventure is 8-2, with three of those wins coming in Wimbledon qualifiers..
They have split two career meetings but Bonaventure prevailed last year on the grass in Mallorca. Kudermetova is the more talented player but I fancy Bonaventure’s game on grass.
I’ll back the underdog in what I make much closer to a coin flip than the line suggests.
My Bet: Bonaventure +154
Rebecca Peterson (-149) vs Yanina Wickmayer (+129)
My line: Peterson -130
I have no strong feel for this match.
Both are capable on grass but neither has had any results to speak of in 2019. Wickmayer has more grass pedigree but isn’t the same player who posted solid results here earlier this decade.
Caroline Garcia (-501) vs Shuai Zhang (+406)
My line: Garcia -575
Garcia has a very favorable draw, starting with a fairly easy first-round opponent. She has always performed well on grass and backed that up this year with a title in Nottingham.
Shuai can frustrate opponents with her tricky shot selection, but Garcia is far superior in talent — especially on grass. Shuai is 0-5 in the main draw at Wimbledon and I don’t see that improving on Monday.
Garcia as a parlay piece
Sofia Kenin (-518) vs Astra Sharma (+423)
My line: Kenin -425
Kenin has had a breakout 2019 campaign, highlighted by two titles. Her most recent title came on grass two weeks ago in Mallorca. She played brilliantly throughout, beating top names in Bencic, Sevastova and Mertens.
Sharma is having a career year herself but hasn’t regularly faced top Tour talent. Kenin is a step above the Australian’s usual competition.
I only made Kenin -425 but may not be factoring in her career year and potential enough.
Dayana Yastremska (-179) vs Camila Giorgi (+159)
My line: Yastremska -165
Tricky match to handicap as both are very much form players — and both are not in peak form.
Since returning from injury, Giorgi has played only one match — a close three-set loss to Hsieh in Eastbourne. Giorgi has impressive career grass results and made the quarterfinals at Wimbledon last year before losing to Serena in three sets.
Meanwhile, Yastremska made the final in her only appearance as a Junior at Wimbledon. This is her first time in the main draw as a pro.
Both will go for broke and try to bash winners. I almost pulled the trigger on Giorgi but have to pass with lingering fitness questions.
Iga Swiatek (-147) vs Viktorija Golubic (+127)
My line: Swiatek -170
The 2018 Wimbledon Junior Champion Iggy Swiatek enters Wimbledon in iffy form. Her performance against Samantha Stosur in Eastbourne was very worrisome, but she may have been lacking motivation.
Even with some form concerns, particularly with her serve, I still fancy Swiatek here but mainly as a fade of Golubic on grass. The Swiss has a 14-15 career record on this surface versus mainly ITF level competition.
Swiatek as a parlay piece
Naomi Osaka (-216) vs Yulia Putintseva (+186)
My line: Osaka -190
Osaka can’t be happy with this draw, starting with first-round opponent Putintseva — who has won both career meetings, including a straight set drubbing two weeks ago on the grass in Birmingham.
Putintseva has never been a consistent grass court player, but she’s capable of pulling off a one-off upset on any surface. She can also get under anyone’s skin.
Osaka obviously has the talent and championship pedigree to advance, but she’s just never looked comfortable on grass. She also doesn’t currently have a ton of form or confidence. If she falls behind early, “Poots” could make it 3-0 against Naomi.
My Bet: Putintseva +186
Monday WTA Wimbledon Bet Summary
- Bonaventure +154
- Tomljanovic -133
- Putintseva +186
- Rybarikova +183
- Hercog -127
- Brady-Martic Over 21
- Potapova/Flipkens ML parlay +110
- Swiatek/Garcia ML parlay +103