Friday Wimbledon Betting Preview: Tricky Day 5 Card to Cap on Men’s Side
Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Roger Federer
Thursday was a wild day at the All England Club, featuring the tournament’s biggest upset to date — Guido Pella (+1575) coming back from down 2-0 against Marin Cilic (-3333). Before play was suspended for darkness, there was another big shocker brewing: Sascha Zverev (-714) finished the day down a set against Taylor Fritz; Fritz won the second and third sets after Zverev took the first.
Friday, we’ll find eight third-round matches on the card, including the Maestro, Roger Federer, who now appears to have a much safer path to the final with Cilic’s early exit. Elsewhere, it looks to be a day where I don’t see too much value in dogs — or value plays, per se.
But, we’ll dig through the card and find the best options from a betting perspective.
The Bigger Favorites
- Roger Federer (-3333) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
- Milos Raonic (-1429) vs. Dennis Novak
- John Isner (-556) vs. Radu Albot
As far as the bigger-priced favorites go, I’d expect only Federer and Milos Raonic to win their matches relatively comfortably. Yet, with Raonic priced at -1429 and Roger at -3333, there doesn’t appear to be much value with either of the moneylines — even parlayed.
The spread for the Raonic match is -6, but I’d err on the side of caution there. Milos got through his first-round match against Liam Broady with ease — and did a really great job on the return side of things, breaking Broady six times and winning the final two sets 6-0, 6-1. Granted, Broady hardly boasts a big serve.
In his second match, however, Raonic had a much tougher time breaking serve (converting just one of his four break chances), and was pushed to three tiebreaks against John Millman. It’s hard to tell what type of shape Dennis Novak will be in after his five-set war against Lucas Pouille in the second round, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more tiebreaks for Raonic in the third round, making that -6 games tough to cover.
As for John Isner, I expect him to get through Radu Albot despite the American’s second-round scare. Isner looked much better than that five-set scoreline suggests, and Big John very well should’ve wrapped that up in straight sets (before blowing a 4-0 lead in the third-set breaker).
Isner’s matches always contain very fine margins, but with Cilic now out of the tournament, I think Isner will sense the opportunity to win the quarter and will execute his gameplan against Albot.
The Middle-Priced Favorites
- Sam Querrey (-200) vs. Gael Monfils
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (-250) vs. Thomas Fabbiano
- Kevin Anderson (-250) vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
While I’m not necessarily confident enough in any of the underdogs to suggest backing them, I’m also not high enough on any of these favorites to suggest them as parlay pieces. Of all the underdogs, I’m most tempted by Gael Monfils against Sam Querrey.
Querrey has looked strong this tournament, but having played Jordan Thompson and Sergiy Stakhovsky in his first two matches, he has yet to face someone with the athleticism (and unpredictability) of Monfils.
I also gave Kohlschreiber some consideration, but Anderson has owned him over the years (4-0 head-to-head), and I expect to see some tiebreaks in that match. If you’re looking for action, I’d give the over a look. Heck, I think all three of these matches have a decent shot of going over.
- Daniil Medvedev (-133) vs. Adrian Mannarino
- Guido Pella (-154) vs. Mackenzie McDonald
Daniil Medvedev is the slight favorite over Adrian Mannarino, but the Frenchman has looked extremely sharp — and oddly aggressive — in his first two matches at Wimbledon, and owns the head-to-head, 2-0.
The two met on grass back in 2016 at ‘s-Hertogenbosch, and Mannarino got through that one comprehensively, 6-4, 6-2. With Medvedev’s form on the grass prior to Wimbledon suspect at best, I think the value is with Mannarino at plus money. Of all the players who have come out and looked good so far at Wimbledon, it’s hard to not put Mannarino at the top of that list.
In the other match, I suppose I give Pella the edge there — but there’s something to be said about backing up a win against a player the class of Cilic. Also, Pella played that entire match against Cilic as the one pushing Cilic; however, I expect the American, McDonald, to force Pella to play this one on his front foot. And that could pose a problem for Pella.