After winning her 11th consecutive grass semifinal and 20th straight match at Wimbledon, Serena Williams is now one win away from her 24th Grand Slam title, which would tie Margaret Court for most all-time.
On the other hand, an upset win by Angelique Kerber would give the German three of the four career Grand Slams, putting her one French Open title away from joining 10 other women who have accomplished that rare feat.
Let’s take a closer look at Saturday’s championship at The All England Club to determine if anything is worth betting.
Angelique Kerber (+177) vs. Serena Williams (-193) | O/U: 22
Where: Centre Court
When: 9 a.m. ET
Serena and Kerber have had pretty similar paths to the Wimbledon final. Each has lost only one set in six match wins — and only two games separate their net results, as Kerber has lost 49 total games to Serena’s 47.
As of Friday morning, 60% of the betting action was on Serena.
Williams has won six of their eight career meetings, including the lone encounter on grass in the 2016 Wimbledon final, which marked the last time they met.
Eight of their nine matchups have finished in straight sets, and only one of 17 sets has gone to a tiebreaker. However, Kerber has served as well as she ever has over the past few matches, and their past three meetings (all finals) have all been very competitive.
This will mark Serena’s 30th career Grand Slam final. She has an amazing 23-6 record (79%) in her previous 29, including a 7-2 record at Wimbledon.
The American has actually won five straight Wimbledon finals — with only one going three sets (against Aga Radwanska in 2012). And most impressive of all, Serena owns an 8-1 Slam record in matches that go three sets. However, that one loss came against Kerber.
Angie will seek a third Slam win in her fourth career major final appearance. Her only loss came here at Wimbledon in 2016 in straight sets to Serena in a very high-quality match. The German defeated Serena earlier that year in the Australian Open final and then took down Karolina Pliskova later in 2016 at the U.S. Open — both of her wins came in three sets.
Kerber certainly has a shot on Saturday. She knows she can beat Serena on the biggest stage, as she did in the 2016 Australian Open final. Self-belief is half the battle against the greatest women’s player of all-time. The German won’t fear her opponent or the stage, which not many other players on Tour can claim.
The formula in that win in Melbourne was to chase everything down and not give Serena any pace back. Kerber used a variety of shots and angles to make Serena come to the net, which she hasn’t had to do much in this tourney. Williams’ lateral footwork has looked better with each match, but nobody has really tested her vertical movement. Serena hasn’t faced an elite defensive player yet in this tourney. That will change on Saturday.
On the surface, this is just an elite power player against an elite defender, but Kerber has served at a very high level all tournament — especially in her most recent matches. Breaks of serve may be at a premium on Saturday.
Kerber won’t give Serena many free points, as she’s playing so cleanly: Kerber had only seven unforced errors to Ostapenko’s 34 in the semis. And if she can serve as she did in that match (77% of first serves in), she’ll keep it super-competitive. However, in the end, you just have to trust the greatest women’s server of all time to get it done. Serena leads the tourney with a stellar 80% of first serve points won in her first six matches.
The line looks about right, but I see slight value on the over 22 games considering how well both are serving right now, though I don’t feel that strongly about it. Totals are a tough cap in WTA Grand Slam finals.
Bet to Watch: Over 22 games