Monday Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Manchester United vs. Wolves Betting Preview

Man United vs. Wolves Odds

To close out another slate of matches in Premier League action, Manchester United hosts Wolverhampton Wanderers at Old Trafford.

The Red Devils, who enter the game unbeaten in their last eight contests across all competitions, look to continue their push for European qualification next season under new management.

Meanwhile, Wolves have had a great first half of the campaign, ranking eighth in the EPL table on 25 points.

United is unbeaten in its last 10 at home against Wolves (seven wins and three draws), which includes seven clean sheets during that span.

The lack of goals is a trend that should continue in this showdown.

Rangnick Takes Man United to Next Level

After five games in charge, we now have data to compare how the Red Devils have played before and after manager Ralf Rangnick joined the historic club.

The main improvement has come on the defensive side. Before Rangnick was hired, United allowed an average of 1.6 expected goals per match overall, according to fbref.com, which has dropped to 1.04 since he took the reins.

One key performer this season has been goalkeeper David de Gea, who leads the English top flight in post-shot xG minus goals allowed at +7.5 this season.

Offensively, the Red Devils have held solid metrics on the whole, posting 26.4 xG and 13.83 shots per match thus far.

Stingy Back Line Still Powering Wolves

While United had its defensive issues that needed improving, this couldn’t be further from the truth with Wolves, who boast some of the best advanced stats outside of the top three in the table.

Manager Bruno Lage’s team ranks fourth in opponents’ shots per match (11.89), fifth in big scoring chances surrendered (16) and third in goals allowed (14) up to this point.

Like United, Wolves also have a top goalkeeper, with José Sá only trailing de Gea in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed at (+6.3) so far.

However, the attacking metrics for Wolves do leave some room for improvement, where they rank toward the bottom of the EPL in shots per match (9.89) and xG (17.9) overall.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Oddsmakers at BetMGM have Manchester United slated as the -185 favorite on the moneyline to go along with a total of 2.5 goals for the match.

With the recent improvements from the Red Devils going up against a stout Wolves defense, my best bet for this match is to take the total staying under 2.5 goals at -115 odds. If you look at the full season, the same bet has cashed in 15 of 18 (83%) of Wolverhampton's matches, resulting in an average of 1.5 goals per game.

The visitor's last fixture to go over this total was back on Nov. 1 in a 2-1 victory over Everton, which is a span that has included contests against the potent attacks of Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool.

For United, four of the five games since Rangnick became manager have fallen under 2.5 goals as well and the combined xG in those games finished with an average of 2.56 goals.

The Red Devils haven’t gotten tested by strong competition during  that span, and this is likely to continue against a Wolves attack that has averaged just 0.5 xG over their last six games.

When you add up the recent defensive metrics with two top goalkeepers, it sets this game up to be a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-115)