Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec Odds, Prediction
| Saint-Denis Odds | -1350 |
| Prepolec Odds | +800 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (+130/-166) |
| Location | Centre Bell | Montreal, Quebec |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 315 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 315 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec predictions, picks and odds for UFC 315 on Saturday, May 10.
One of, if not the, most anticipated fights at UFC 315 was Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Joel Alvarez. Both lightweight finishers are known for their exciting styles. Unfortunately, Alvarez was forced to withdraw, and the UFC is bringing back Kyle Prepolec as a replacement. Prepolec lost a pair of decisions for the promotion in 2019, before getting and returning to the regional scene. BSD is unsurprisingly a massive favorite, but is there any betting value in this one?
Here's my Saint-Denis vs. Prepolec prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Saint-Denis | Prepolec | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-3 | 18-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:33 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 70" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 12/18/1995 | 8/30/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.17 | 3.20 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 34% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.98 | 4.70 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.97 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 0 |
| TD Def | 68% | 40% |
| Submission Avg | 1.2 | 0 |
Just over a year ago, Benoit Saint-Denis looked like a safe bet to be a future title challenger, if not champion. The former French special forces member had finished five straight fights in the first two rounds, and was a -210 favorite over UFC veteran Dustin Poirier.
That's where things went south, as Saint-Denis nearly finished Porier in the first round, before completely running out of gas in the second and being knocked out himself. He followed that up with another second round loss, this time to Renato Moicano.
The book is clearly out on Saint-Denis, with his hyper aggressive fighting style and massive size for the division leading to issues in extended fights. While we loved the quick finishes, they aren't nearly as easy to come by against the upper echelon of the division.
Saint-Denis also admitted to not having a coach for either of those fight camps, a situation he's since rectified. You'd have to imagine that pacing himself has been a major focus from his new leadership, as well as cardio in general.
While that's suddenly less of an issue thanks to the opponent switch, this is also the perfect opportunity to build some cage time against a less threatening opponent.
Windsor, Ontario native Kyle Prepolec is a longtime veteran of the Canada and Michigan regional MMA scene, fighting a who's who of the area between his stints in the UFC. While he's suffered eight defeats as a pro he's never been knocked out, and his last submission loss came all the way back in 2013 to future ranked UFC competitor Kevin Lee.
Prepolec is a very technical striker with solid kicks, but has consistently been a half-step slow against UFC-level opposition. The gap isn't wide enough that he gets flatlined, but he's been surviving more than anything else in these matchups.
That's also against lower level opponents than Saint-Denis, though Prepolec's durability and defense are still encouraging.
It's also worth noting that while Prepolec accepted this fight on short notice, he was already booked for a Friday fight in Montreal. That means his travel and weight cut were essentially unchanged, and he got a full training camp in.
That's an entirely different scenario than stepping off the couch into a short notice call up. If anything, Prepolec likely has the cardio edge in this matchup.
Saint-Denis vs. Prepolec Prediction
Everything is lining up nicely here for the classic late replacement "moral victory" from Prepolec.
Saint-Denis has some incentives to let this fight extend, and Prepolec has a golden opportunity to get his UFC job back by turning in a competitive performance. Since he was already in training camp, he's as ready as ever for the call up.
Of course, that scenario is hard to bet on. Prepolec's +3.5 point spread prop is north of +400, but he'd have to survive the entire fight to pay that off, not just find some early success. Beyond just surviving, he'd also need to win one of the rounds, which is an even taller order.
Instead, I'm taking the fight to start Round 2 at -110 on FanDuel. All we need is Prepolec to survive a single round, and given his track record I like his chances to do so. His point spread might be more fun, but this is the sharper bet.
A live bet on Prepolec should he survive the first is also an interesting idea. We could see some truly outrageous lines if Saint-Denis does empty the tank early, but is unable to put Prepolec away.
Billy's Pick: Fight Starts Round 2 -110 (FanDuel)
