Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva Odds, Prediction
| Grasso Odds | +200 |
| Silva Odds | -245 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-540/+360) |
| Location | Centre Bell | Montreal, Quebec |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 315 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 315 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva predictions, picks and odds for UFC 315 on Saturday, May 10.
Alexa Grasso versus Natalia Silva could have very well been a championship bout, and it still may be in the future, as both world-class women are squarely in their prime. At first glance, its difficult to absorb the thought of the former champion Grasso as a sizable underdog, but as you dig deeper, the skills of the surging Silva may soon prove to be the most elite in the division.
Here's my Grasso vs. Silva prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Grasso | Silva | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-4-1 | 18-5-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:52 | 12:24 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/9/1993 | 2/3/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.19 | 5.19 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.69 | 2.35 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 64% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 25% |
| TD Def | 54% | 91% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0 |
Statistical margins in MMA do not always tell the entire story, as the level of competition and stylistic matchups usually prove to be the more essential factors in handicapping fighters.
Still,the dominance of Natalia Silva cannot be understated. Silva’s 91% takedown defense combined with her fluid footwork make it very difficult for her opponents to drag her to the mat. Thus, any time you are facing Silva, you are likely fighting her type of fight in kickboxing range, and that is where her stats jump off the page.
Sean Zerillo discussed Silva's statistical prowess on this week's UFC Betting Preview with Billy Ward:
Silva not only holds a striking accuracy and defensive striking advantage over Grasso, but she has landed more than twice as many strikes as she has absorbed throughout her UFC tenure. Silva most recently outlanded women’s MMA mainstay Jessica Andrade 117-50 in significant strikes.
Andrade could not find the fleet-footed Silva, as she landed just 35% of her strikes at distance. This area specifically is where I see the major advantage for Silva over Grasso. Grasso does not lack output.
However, even in her 2nd fight against Valentina Shevchenko, the bout in which the most striking took place of the three in the trilogy, Grasso struggled at range. In total, at distance, Grasso landed just 31% of her strikes in that aforementioned contest.
Grasso is an opportunistic grappler, which is how she was crowned champion in one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. However, she has landed multiple takedowns in just one fight over the entirety of her UFC career. I do not believe she will be able to carry out such a gameplan against the elusive Silva.
In fact, the string of victories Grasso had prior to the Shevchenko trilogy do not seem easily replicated here against Silva. I won't go as far as to say she got lucky in winning the championship, but maybe she just wasn't on the level of the champion after all was said and done.
Grasso vs. Silva Prediction
This line is quite wide, and it is not easy to find an angle with tremendous value considering Silva by decision is -150 at most sportsbooks.
The fight is also heavily juiced to go to decision, and rightfully so. Thus, assuming most of this fight plays out standing, I expect both women to attempt plenty of strikes, as each has done in kickboxing range during their careers. A same-game parlay at DraftKings is how I will be attacking this fight.
Besides' Silva' moneyline, the two legs I'm adding are overs both women's significant strike totals. I'm taking Silva to land at least 50 significant strikes and Grasso to land at least 40, giving me total odds of +110 for this same game parlay.
John's Pick: DraftKings SGP: Silva Moneyline, Silva 50+ Significant Strikes, Grasso 40+ Significant Strikes (+110 Total Odds)
