The UFC's three week stretch of events away from the Apex culminates in UFC 315 from Montreal, Canada. We've got two title fights on the card, with Belal Muhammad defending his welterweight crown against Jack Della Maddalena, and Valentina Schevchenko putting the women's flyweight title on the line against Manon Fiorot.
The prelims for the 11-fight (for now) card start at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN+, with the five-fight main card going down at 10:00 p.m. on ESPN+ PPV.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 315 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Kansas City Predictions & Luck Ratings
Belal Muhammad (-205) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (+170)
Jack Della Maddalena snuck his way into a title shot based on availability. Belal Muhammad was originally slated to fight Shavkat Rakhmonov before he got hurt, than Rakhmonov was injured during his #1 contender match win over Ian Garry.
The UFC chose to pull JDM from his scheduled fight with former champion Leon Edwards to make this matchup, which has ultimately resulted in a layoff of just over 14 months for the Australian. That's not optimal, though neither is the significant toe injury that forced Muhammad out of his previously scheduled booking.
While Maddalena is a perfect 7-0 in the UFC it hasn't been the smoothest ride, and two of his last three wins have come via split decision. Muhammad looked like the best welterweight in the world when he dominated Edwards to win the title, so it's easy to see why the line is where it's at.
We've seen it come in on Muhammad a bit after opening at -250, and I might be tempted to take a swing if it continues to drop. However, for the time being this is a fair price.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Manon Fiorot (-155) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+130)
The other title fight at UFC 315 features long-reigning (with a brief interruption) champion Valentina Shevchenko, finally done with her trilogy against Alexa Grasso that consumed the better part of the last three years.
After suffering a surprise defeat to Grasso, they went on to fight to a draw in the rematch, before Shevchenko won back her belt in September. It wasn't the most thrilling performance, but she won all five rounds unanimously.
Fiorot might be the last great test for her in the division where she's won eight title fights. The Frenchwoman dropped her professional debut via split decision, but has since won 12 straight including seven in the UFC. She's never really been in danger of losing any of those fights, and has been taken down just once despite numerous attempts from her opponents.
This is probably the first matchup of Shevchenko's career where she won't have a striking edge, and it's hard to see her grappling Fiorot with much success. As such these lines make sense, and I'll be diving into more tape before I consider betting it.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Bekzat Almakhan (-192) vs. Brad Katona (+160)
I was pretty surprised by some of the opening lines for this bout, which had Almakhan as low as a -175 favorite. Evidently the market agreed with me, as his price has fairly quickly shifted to make Almakhan a heavier favorite.
The Canadian-born Katona is 2-2 in the UFC since returning to the promotion through Season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter. Neither win was especially impressive, while his losses were against relatively lower level competition.
While Almakhan is 0-1 in the UFC, that loss came #1 contender Umar Nurmagomedov, who Almakhan fought on short notice. He was able to drop Nurmagomedov — becoming the only person to do so in the UFC — before losing a grappling heavy decision.
Katona is nowhere near that level of grappler, and Almakhan should be more prepared with a full training camp. Grab his moneyline before it moves any further. The best line is -180 at Caesars.
Verdict: Bekzat Almakhan Undervalued
