Read our UFC 315 predictions for the Saturday, May 10, event live from le Centre Bell in Montreal, Quebec. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at 6:30 p.m. Eastern Time, with the main card starting on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 ET.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their four favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC 315 Moneyline Projections
UFC 315 Prop Projections
UFC 315 Best Bets
Billy Ward: Bekzat Almakhan vs. Brad Katona
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:45 p.m. ET
We have a habit in the MMA gambling community of overreacting when a fighter steps in on short notice for their UFC debut and outperforms expectations in an ultimately losing effort.However, in the case of Bekzat Almakhan, I think the enthusiasm is well earned.
Almakhan made his promotional debut against future title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov, who at the time was undefeated in his pro career. Almakhan gave him his biggest scare to date, dropping the #3 ranked bantamkweight in the first round.
It went south from there, with Nurmagomedov dominating the rest of the fight with his grappling. However, Almakhan was able to survive repeated trips to the ground with Nurmagomedov, which can't be said for the majority of his opponents.
Now he gets a huge step down in the form of Brad Katona, a multiple time Ultimae Fighter reality show winner who is 4-4 in the UFC proper. Katona does his best work as a grappler, but is nowhere near the level of Nurmagomedov on the mat.
Based on his regional tape and the fact that he knocked Nurmagomedov down, Almakhan should have a considerable striking edge over Katona. He's also bigger, more athletic, and about six years younger.
Those are all good signs, but for some reason the line has still moved away from Almakhan since I first took him in my Luck Ratings. I liked the -180 line on Bekzat — which I'm pretty sure means "Baby Shavkat" in his native language — and I love it at -155
The Pick: Bekzat Almakhan -155 (Caesars)
Sean Zerillo: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba
Senior Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:25 p.m. ET
Modestas Bukausas is 4-1 in his second UFC stint, following his brutal 2021 leg injury against Khalil Rountree Jr., but will face a grappling-oriented opponent for the first time in years, in Ion Cutelaba (averages 4.6 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance, 52% accuracy, 54% control rate) who fights like he's double parked (average fight time of 7:48).
Bukauskas has the bigger frame (2" taller, 3" reach advantage), is the more technical striker at range, and has the better gas tank of the pair. However, he has struggled against more physical opponents and powerful athletes (losses to Rountree, Vitor Petrino, Michal Oleksiejczuk, and Jimmy Crute), is not particularly durable himself, and seems a much better offensive grappler than he is defensively.
Cutelaba has underrated wrestling and judo, and can take almost every opponent down. Still, he tends to prioritize submission over position on the mat and exerts all of his energy behind every technique that he attempts in the cage, creating a chaotic atmosphere in every one of his matchups.
Cutelaba has shown the ability to sustain a grappling-heavy game plan for at least ten minutes, but he slows drastically in the second half of his fights, and as Cutelaba wanes, Bukauskas should have a path to a come-from-behind finish in the third round.
Still, I'd expect Cutelaba to look like the much more dangerous and effective fighter from the opening bell, and would bet his moneyline pre-fight, up to -130 (projected -138).
You can consider searching for a live bet on Bukauskas after Round 1 – or midway through Round 2- as the live market will likely offer the peak price point on the underdog.
In addition to Cutelaba's moneyline, I also show value on the Fight to End Inside the Distance (projected -370, listed -200) and on Cutelaba to win Inside the Distance (projected +116, listed +130).
The Pick: Ion Cutelaba (-120 at Fanduel) | Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-200 at ESPNBet)
John Lanfranca: Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Jessica Andrade & Kyle Prepolec vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET/ 10:15 p.m. ET
You can always count on me to bring you what I truly believe is the best bet on the card. This week it is the rare parlay. I personally do not recommend making a habit of parlaying larger favorites in any manner, in any sport, as each leg you add simply gives value back to the sportsbooks.
I will make an exception for Saturday at UFC315.
Jasmine Jasudavicius has too much physicality, momentum and grappling prowess for the over-matched Jessica Andrade. Jasudavicius will be backed by a raucous home crown in Canada, and it is no mystery what her gameplan will be against the smaller Andrade.
Andrade is back at flyweight for this bout, which does not bode well for her chances in attempting to unleash any type of finishing power. Andrade’s 54% takedown defense and size disadvantage will be too much to overcome versus a larger Jasudavicius dedicated to getting this fight where she wants it. Jasudavicius has 10 takedowns over her last three fights and I expect her to add a few more to that total en route to victory.
The second leg of this parlay is a gift in the form of a replacement fighter stepping in to take on one of the most aggressive men in MMA. Kyle Prepolec was scheduled to fight on May 9th in a regional organization, so while he isn’t truly taking a fight on short notice, he is agreeing to face a significantly more dangerous opponent in Benoit Saint-Denis on short notice.
The specific parlay piece I will be using is the fight not to start round 3 (-280). Oddsmakers are giving a modest amount of respect to the fact Prepolec has not lost inside the distance over his last 16 MMA fights. Of course, the level of competition is nowhere near the uphill battle he is about to embark on stepping into the octagon with Saint-Denis. I expect BSD to pressure early, land the takedown and finish the bout in any manner he so chooses.
The Picks: Jasudavicius Moneyline & Prepolec/Saint Denis Does Not Start Round 3 -123 Combined Odds (DraftKings)
