2022 Valspar Championship Betting Preview: Odds & 5 Outright Picks, Including Harold Varner III

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After a long week at The PLAYERS, there's not really much to report. There were a few top-five chances that slid away late on Sunday and the live add of Viktor Hovland held a share of the lead for a brief moment. Overall, none of the picks really threatened Cameron Smith.

Now we'll go on to the Valspar Championship, for which the question main question is who will actually show up this week after a grueling five days at TPC Sawgrass.

The Course

Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course checks in at around 7,340 yards for a par 71. It is one of the rare TOUR stops that features five par 3s, so there’s an added emphasis on par-3 scoring, as well as how players handle their approaches from over 200 yards.

Copperhead is also known for its tough three-hole closing stretch, known as
"The Snake Pit," which plays over par. Don’t be surprised if one of the leaders blows a lead coming down the stretch.

A difficult combination of tree-lined fairways, tricky rough and multiple doglegs means that bombers can’t come and overpower this course. Instead, Copperhead is one of a few places left that requires precision over power.

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The Favorites

After a long week at Sawgrass and the potential of seven rounds looming next week at the WGC Match Play event, it's probably not likely that we'll see all these guys tee it up Thursday. We'll take a look at this top of the board as it opened on Monday night, though.

Justin Thomas starts as the favorite here at +900. He's finished inside the top 20 in three of his four starts, but hasn't really contended yet.

Colin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland are next in line at +1100. Hovland finished third here last year, although it was really a two-horse race with Sam Burns and Keegan Bradley. Morikawa is set to make his debut on a course the should fit his eye quite well.

Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele come in next at +1400. Johnson was sixth here in 2019 and entered that Sunday in the final group, but a final round 74 saw him slide down the board a touch. He was in much better form then, however, entering with two wins in five starts. Schauffele will make his first start here and had been playing rather well before can't the blunt end of the weather draw last week.

A handful of interesting players enter in the +2000s range, including Paul Casey, Shane Lowry, Louis Oosthuizen, Brooks Koepka and Tyrell Hatton.

Of the group, Casey will garner plenty of attention. He's won twice here and is coming off a stellar week at The PLAYERS. Hatton will also catch some eyes. He's only played here once and missed the cut, but has four top 20s world wide in his last five starts.

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The Mid-Tier

We'll take a stab here with Keegan Bradley at +6000 on bet365. Bradley was second a year ago, and hung tough with a bad draw at Sawgrass. In classic Keegan fashion, the ball striking was complete dialed in and an average short game allowed him to finish near the top of the board.

I'll go back to my card last week again here with Alex Noren at +6600 at PointsBet. Noren had a decent week at Sawgrass, finishing 26th, and he was 21st in his debut here last year. In that first appearance, the ball striking wasn't nearly in the shape it's in now, but he putted really well. Hopefully, the greens will be to his liking again and the iron play can carry over for one more week.

I'll also go with Gary Woodland at +7000 at bet365. Woodland was on the card at last week and missed the cut, but I'll go back to him here. He's won here before, albeit 11 years ago. Outside of the win, the history is checkered, but the form was good heading into last week and I'll try him again here at a similar number in a much weaker field.

I'll try Harold Varner III here at +8000 on PointsBet. Varner hasn't done much on this course, but he played really well at the PLAYERS, gaining strokes in each category. He's also won recently in Saudi Arabia, as well, which may help calm some of the nerves we've seen in the past from him when he's got into contention.

Bet Mito Pereira at BetMGM, get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

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The Longshots

This has been a spot for a few off-the-radar type players in the past, and I'll go with Mito Periera here at 150-1 at BetMGM. Periera has slid down the board into a more playable price range for me.

The ball striking is there, but he's had bit of a struggle putting on Bermuda in his first full year on tour. It's still too early to fade him for that reason and last fall he had good results putting at the RSM and Houston, so I'll go with him as the longshot while the ball striking is still in solid shape.

The Valspar Card

• Keegan Bradley +6000
• Alex Noren +6600
• Gary Woodland +7000
• Harold Varner III +8000
• Mito Pereira +15000