2023 Wyndham Championship Picks & Odds: Expert Bets for Denny McCarthy & Billy Horschel

Professional golf’s version of last call before the club shuts down takes place this week at the 2023 Wyndham Championship, where for the first time players are vying to be inside not just the top 125 to reach the FedEx Cup Playoffs but the top 70, essentially guaranteeing that we’ll have some big names on the outside looking in.

Ben Griffin, Cam Davis and Austin Eckroat hold the last three spots inside the top 70 entering the Wyndham Championship, while Ben Taylor, Garrick Higgo and K.H. Lee are the first three on the wrong side of that line.

But the biggest storylines remain further back, with major champions Shane Lowry (No. 76), Justin Thomas (No. 79) and Adam Scott (No. 81) each trying to extend their seasons.

It all leads to an intriguing field for betting purposes, as we won’t find a player ranked higher than 20^th in the world, while intangibles like competing with pressure and motivation must be considered as much as the more measurable metrics.

Before we look ahead, let’s take a quick look back at last year’s Wyndham Championship, where we either learned or were reminded of a few things.

The first: Never give up. If you ripped up your Tom Kim ticket after an opening-hole quadruple-bogey in Thursday’s first round, you were taping it back together three days later when he won. It was a lesson that would come in handy just a few weeks later, when Rory McIlroy similarly started with a triple-bogey at the Tour Championship (on top of being down six on the staggered leaderboard), only to win, as well.

The second: For as much as the FedExCup playoff push remains an underlying narrative, there isn’t usually much movement back and forth across that magic number. Last year, only two players moved inside the number – and one was Kim, who wasn’t a PGA Tour member before then. The year before, it was three; the year before that, also three.

Once again, the Wyndham Championship returns to Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, N.C., which will play just over 7,100 yards, catering to those who keep it in the fairway, knock their wedges tight and can roll in plenty of midrange putts on Bermudagrass greens.

Let’s get right to the Wyndham Championship picks, starting with a player who should check off every one of those boxes.

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Wyndham Championship Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the Wyndham Championship

Denny McCarthy +3500

The question of “Who’s the best player without a PGA Tour victory?” used to be innocent enough, as our minds would race toward those who have continually come close, and we’d pick from that list.

These days, the analytics can take some guesswork out of a query which admittedly requires increased parameters, as disparate responses of Cameron Young or Tommy Fleetwood might tell us more about how we judge this competition than about the competitors themselves.

All of which is a very roundabout, long-winded way of getting to the point that Denny McCarthy probably doesn’t top anyone’s list, but he shouldn’t be too far down. Ranked 32^nd in the world, McCarthy has experienced plenty of close calls this season alone, with a half-dozen top-10 finishes, though none closer than a playoff loss at the Memorial Tournament. He played better golf than everyone else for 35 holes on the weekend, made a forgivable bogey on the last of the final round, then got blindsided by Viktor Hovland in a playoff.

Still, it all feels like things are trending in a very nice direction for him – a direction which should be leading to that elusive first career victory. On a golf course that requires accuracy, strong short-iron play and a hot flatstick, one of the game’s best putters should thrive.

He quizzically missed the cut here last year, but in the four previous years he finished 15^th-9^th-22^nd-36^th, with every round at par or better and 15 of the 16 in red figures. This feels like the perfect spot for McCarthy to cross his name off that aforementioned list.

Pick: Denny McCarthy Outright

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Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the Wyndham Championship

Billy Horschel +6500

Most golf betting regrets happen on Sunday afternoons. If you spent the last two of ‘em wondering why you didn’t play Brian Harman or Lee Hodges pre-tourney, you’re not alone.

Sometimes, though, these regrets can take place almost immediately. That was the case for me at last week’s 3M Open. I had simply bypassed Billy Horschel’s name on the board, only to feel those pangs when he birdied two of his first three holes Thursday morning. Sure, I grabbed a little piece live at a much shorter number, and granted, his T13 finish three days later didn’t exactly correspond to that earlier regret, but I knew better things were coming for Billy Ho – and I think they still are.

It was fewer than two months ago when he posted an opening-round 84 at the Memorial Tournament and faced the media, speaking through tears about how difficult the game can be and how hard he was working at it. In the time since, his results hadn’t really shown much reason for optimism, with a T43 at the U.S. Open, T65 at the Genesis Scottish Open and two missed cuts, but I’d personally watched Horschel at the practice range a few times and felt like he was on the right path.

Of course, last week’s performance has moved him to half the outright price as last week in an arguably better field, though results of 27^th or better in each of his last four Wyndham starts and five of his last six certainly contribute to that shorter number. I think Harris English, Adam Hadwin and Alex Smalley make for interesting outright targets at similar odds to Horschel, as well.

Pick: Billy Horschel Outright

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Other OADers

Potential Selections for One-and-Done Pools

Shane Lowry (+2200)

There are only four events remaining on the 2022-23 PGA Tour schedule, but this will be the final one for Shane Lowry if he can’t move up at least six spots on the points list. While Justin Thomas’ plight will garner a greater share of the headlines, Lowry’s current position might be a bit more of a head-scratcher, for the sole reason that it’s never actually seemed like he’s played too poorly this season.

Before a missed cut at the recent Open Championship, he’d finished between 12^th and 20^th place in five of his previous six starts; in fact, that’s been a familiar range for him, which helps explain his predicament.

In a world where high ceilings mixed with low floors are rewarded infinitely more than consistency, Lowry is a perfect example of a player whose performance has outweighed his results. I like the idea of using him when his back is against the wall, and he certainly owns some win equity this week.

J.T. Poston (+3500)

With the combination of recent form and course history, expect J.T. Poston to be a popular play in OADs this week. If you’re leading your pool and simply want to stiff-arm the competition, he makes sense; if you’re trying to play catch-up, it’s more reasonable to look elsewhere.

Poston received a lot of attention this past weekend, of course. Playing in the final group of the 3M Open, he trailed playing partner Lee Hodges by three strokes on the par-5 final hole and was faced with a tough sidehill lie and long shot over water for his second. He decided to go for it, but the low trajectory of the shot forced his ball into the rocks guarding that hazard.

It eventually led to a triple-bogey, and while we could (rightly) argue that his ensuing sloppiness was the real culprit, he dropped from solo second place to a three-way tie, essentially coughing up $260,000 in the process.

Poston tweeted afterward that he’d attempt the same hero shot every single time, a comment which was almost universally applauded by fellow players and fans alike, though I did see a few Twittiots contend that he should’ve played for the second-place check instead. Maybe those are just people who had him in OADs last week and wanted the bigger cash.

In any case, this should be another solid week for the 2019 Wyndham champion.

Harris English (+5000)

A former top-10 player in the world, Harris English has been gradually working his way back to relevance. He fell as far as 90^th just a few months ago, but he's now back at 38^th, thanks to top-three finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Wells Fargo Championship, plus a top-10 finish at the U.S. Open.

Those flashes should be enough to target him in all platforms – OAD, outrights, props and DFS – at an event where he’d made the cut in seven straight appearances before missing it last year. His wedge game and putter have been a strength recently, as usual, and should fit Sedgefield nicely.

Nicholas Lindheim (+7500)

I can guarantee this much: You haven’t crossed Nicholas Lindheim’s name off your OAD list yet this year. If you’re looking for a last-minute Hail Mary who likely won’t be used by anyone else who’s not reading this preview, check out the guy who’s finished eighth or better in four of his last five Korn Ferry Tour starts, including a win in his most recent start a few weeks ago.

A 38-year-old late bloomer who was ranked outside the world’s top 1,000 less than a year ago, he’s the ultimate contrarian play this week, if you’re banking on everyone else’s Sungjae Im and Sam Burns selections going down in flames.

Wyndham Championship Placement Market Bets

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Russell Henley (+550 for top-five finish)

Oh, yeah. I’m absolutely going back to this one — if for no other reason than the backstory.

Two years ago, I offered up Russell Henley as a top-five play at this tournament. That looked smart when he led by three strokes through 54 holes, but Henley struggled on the final day. Tied for the lead on the 72nd hole, he missed a short par putt to finish one stroke back.

No worries on the top five, though, right? Not so fast, my friends.

Because the event ended in a six-man playoff, Henley’s one-shot deficit only yielded a share of seventh place, making him the first player since Emanuele Canonica at the 2001 Nissan Open to finish one off the pace and still not cash top-five tickets. (For the record, Canonica just barely missed out on not only a crowded playoff but perhaps the most retroactively eclectic one ever, as Robert Allenby held off Brandel Chamblee, Dennis Paulson, Jeff Sluman, Bob Tway and Toshi Izawa.)

As if to only tease us, last year Henley posted a final-round 66 and moved up the board to finish in a share of … you got it … fifth place.

In any case, what’s clear is that he loves this course, and while he doesn’t have a top-five since the Masters, this feels like the right place to expect it again.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Alex Smalley (+550 for top-10 finish)

If Henley isn’t the chalkiest play of the week, then it might be Alex Smalley, a member of Sedgefield whose iron game has been on fire lately, gaining strokes on approach shots in eight straight starts before a missed cut at the Scottish Open.

During that run, he posted five top 25s and two top 10s, the latter coming when he was barely above neutral with the putter. That means there’s some room for improvement.

If he continues the solid ball-striking and spikes on these familiar greens, Smalley could be in the mix come Sunday afternoon’s back nine.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Carson Young (+700 for top-20 finish)

The chalk stops here — or at least I think it does.

Carson Young has experienced a nice under-the-radar rookie campaign on the PGA Tour, especially recently, posting finishes of 21st or better in five of his last 12 starts. He largely does it with driving accuracy and putting, and while that combo won’t work wonders on many PGA Tour venues, it feels like a nice starting point here.

His ability to go low makes him a first-round leader play, as well, but I think Young should stick inside the top 20 as a big plus-money prop this weekend.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Aaron Rai (+137 for top-30 finish) and David Lipsky (+275 for top-30 finish)

Ever since this pair competed together at the Zurich Classic a few years ago, I’ve often thought of Aaron Rai and David Lipsky in the same vein — precision players who can pop on any given week.

Frankly, the idea of Rai at +4500 outright and Lipsky at +11000 feels like too much separation, with the former priced too short and the latter a bit long.

Perhaps it makes a bit of sense, as Rai has cashed top-30 finishes in five of his last seven, while Lipsky has done so in just two of his last eight, though with a couple of other close calls.

They each feel like a strong play to be inside the number here.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Ben Martin (+200 for top-40 finish)

It really doesn’t feel that long ago when I was writing up Ben Martin as a player who was largely getting overlooked by oddsmakers and bettors alike. This was 4-5 months ago, when he posted results of 13th or better in four starts over a six-event stretch.

Since then, things have gotten much uglier, as he’s failed to finish inside the top 40 in 10 straight. That, of course, has moved his number to a more playable level.

We’ve done nicely in recent weeks playing guys for a top 40 who hadn’t been there in a while — most notably Troy Merritt — so I like taking a shot here on Martin, who owns the necessary skill set to succeed at Sedgefield.

Wyndham Championship DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Adam Hadwin

This category is usually reserved for a Scottie Scheffler or a Jon Rahm — some no-brainer selection who might be too short to play as an outright but deserves consideration for the top of your lineup.

Save for Russell Henley and Shane Lowry, each of whom I listed above, none of the players near the top of the board interest me too much this week, so I’ll go deeper with the Bingo Square, ensuring that balanced lineups are more likely than a top/bottom-heavy approach.

It’s been a wild summer for Adam Hadwin, at least late on Sunday afternoons. He was tackled by security on the final green of the RBC Canadian Open when trying to celebrate with buddy Nick Taylor, and he was allowed to watch and applaud for Rickie Fowler at the Rocket Mortgage Classic when Fowler beat him in a playoff.

The golf gods owe Hadwin a little something, and this should be a nice course fit, considering two years ago (the last time he played here) he posted three rounds of 66 or better and finished in a share of 10th place.

Start your DFS lineups here, not with the bigger-priced players, and you’ll have plenty of room to load up in that mid-tier.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Eric Cole

I’ve written this in multiple previews over the summer, but Eric Cole competes like exactly what he is — a 35-year-old rookie who doesn’t have a whole lot of time to waste.

There’s an immediacy to his game that should serve him well the next time he’s in contention, not to mention the myriad mini-tour wins that could steel his nerves.

At 40th on the FedExCup Standings, he’s already thinking about securing his spot not into next week’s field, but the BMW Championship and perhaps the Tour Championship, which comes with a whole lot of benefits that should help any rookie moving forward.

This feels like a good week for him to step on the gas pedal, which makes him a viable DFS option for his price.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Webb Simpson

Y’all know the deal: If a player names one of his kids after the tournament sponsor, we put him on the list — no questions asked. Alright, maybe a few questions asked if he hasn’t cracked the top 50 in his last five starts.

It’s been a difficult year for Webb Simpson, who’s played somewhat sporadically and hasn’t looked sharp when he has, with just two finishes inside the top 50 in 11 total starts.

If there’s ever a tourney where he can turn it around, though, it’s this one. At this tournament, he owns a win, two seconds, two thirds and nine top 10s in 14 career starts, easily making him the leading money-winner here.

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First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Mackenzie Hughes (+8000 for FRL)

While other Canadians have flourished this year, Mackenzie Hughes has taken a step back, entering the year at 46th on the OWGR and now sitting at 75th.

Even so, I like targeting strong putters for single-round investments, and the North Carolina resident is coming off four straight sub-70 rounds in Minnesota. If the flatstick gets hot, he’s easily capable of posting a 61 or 62 — the scores that have clinched FRL honors the past two years.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Ben Griffin (+8000)

Last year, Ben Griffin was given a sponsor’s exemption into the Wyndham Championship as a Korn Ferry Tour member and shocked the masses, finishing in solo fourth place.

An alum of UNC, he won’t be able to sneak up on anyone this time around as a PGA Tour rookie — especially one who’s gained strokes with his irons in eight consecutive starts.

I don’t mind targeting him in matchups against the likes of similarly-priced players such as Garrick Higgo and Ryan Palmer.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Adam Scott (+2200), Akshay Bhatia (+6000), Adam Svensson (+7500), Adam Schenk (+7500), Lucas Glover (+9000), Chez Reavie (+10000), Greyson Sigg (+15000), Doc Redman (+18000), Zac Blair (+25000)

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