2022 NL Rookie of the Year Odds: It’s Seiya Suzuki’s Award To Lose
Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Seiya Suzuki.
NL Rookie of the Year Odds
Odds via PointsBet as of April 19
Nippon Professional Baseball League superstar turned MLB rookie Seiya Suzuki is competing amongst boys for this award, and here he is still available at plus-money.
No one is here to declare winners or losers in mid-April — and keeping your money tied up at a sportsbook until November provides horrible time value — but it’s clear 10 games in that Suzuki has what’s needed to be a legitimate threat in Major League Baseball.
He’s reached base in every game he’s played entering Tuesday night, which includes a nine-game hitting streak, 11 RBIs and a 1.493 OPS. The five-time NPB All-Star has also had four homers in just 39 plate appearances to go along with nine walks.
Those stats were good enough to win the NL’s first Player of the Week Award for the season’s first full week.
For context, here are his accomplishments in Japan:
- Six-time member of Japanese baseball’s version of the NBA’s All-NBA First Team
- Two-time NPB leader in batting average
- Two-time NPB leader in on-base percentage
- Five-time Gold Glover
- Five-time All-Star
- .315/.414/.570 slash line across nine seasons in the second-best professional baseball league in the world
Age, experience and prior accolades can also afford a ballplayer the intangible trappings that young players can find hard to develop quickly. The allures and confines of fame, hype and money: Suzuki has already dealt with them.
Slumps at the highest level? Suzuki’s been there. Nine years of professional baseball at a premier level also solidifies one’s approach — solidifies one’s conviction on what it takes to succeed at the plate or in the gym or at practice.
Be forewarned that there’s still injury risk. It’s still mid-April. And yes, there’s a real possibility 103-mph hurler Hunter Greene or a 6-foot-7 on-base machine like Oneil Cruz might catch fire.
Also, time value is a very real — and important — financial concept.
But if you bought in prior to the season on a Suzuki ticket to win NL Rookie of the Year — especially at as high as +550 — you’re in luck.
That price has already deteriorated to a market-best of +160.
Books like PointsBet, for instance, have already offered cash out options that would have resulted in a roughly 66% profit on a +500 ticket. That’s absurd for a line that’s due to settle in November.
As far as the rest of the field goes, Greene has seen his odds float upward after showing off his arm during his first two MLB starts. The rookie fired the most pitches over 100 mph in a single outing in his second-ever start.
The fireballer’s odds of +500 imply a probability of under 17% that he wins this award. Those odds are up from roughly +900 before the season.
The rest of the field has implied odds of 11% or lower, but things may change whenever Suzuki inevitably slows down. The question is whether it’ll be enough to change the tides of this race — which is now definitively his to lose.
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