Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Handicapping Michael Kopech’s Fourth Career Start
Patrick Gorski, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Michael Kopech
Betting odds: Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
- Over/Under: 8
- First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Probable Pitchers: Jordan Zimmermann (6-6, 4.22 ERA) vs. Michael Kopech (1-0, 0.82 ERA)
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 90-59-4, +24.75 units
Yesterday’s Result: Padres-Diamondbacks Under 8, Lucchesi vs. Ray (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
There was a lot of hype surrounding 2014 first-round draft pick Michael Kopech when he finally made his major league debut a couple of weeks ago. Fortunately for the White Sox, the 22-year-old flamethrower has already proven he was worth the wait.
Kopech has made three starts since joining Chicago, and even though he’s had only nine strikeouts — uncharacteristic considering his reputation for fanning hitters with regularity — he’s also surrendered just a single run.
It is, admittedly, a small sample as the Texas native has pitched just 11 innings (two of his appearances were cut short because of rain) but in his one full outing, he held the Tigers to just one run, struck out four and limited Detroit to seven baserunners in six innings.
The strikeouts should come next, as Kopech averaged 12.11 Ks per 9 innings with Triple-A Charlotte.
Kopech takes on a veteran right-hander in Zimmermann. The 32-year-old is enjoying a bit of a renaissance campaign in 2018, and his 4.22 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story.
Zimmermann has struggled since signing with Detroit in 2016, posting a 4.87 ERA that season and a brutal 6.08 ERA last year, so his numbers this year indicate a step in the right direction.
While this isn’t the same pitcher who was perennially effective with the Nationals for many years, Zimmermann has proven he can still be useful. For instance, he’s registering his highest K/9 (7.93) and lowest BB/9 (1.52) marks since the 2014 campaign.
Zimmermann has had a tough time going up against the White Sox this year. In all four of his dates with the South Siders, the 10-year veteran has surrendered at least four runs in each one.
Even so, I’m willing to bet that Zimmermann can at least hold his own tonight. He appears to have found some rhythm lately, with four quality starts in his last six outings.
With the way the juice is set up, you might as well wait before putting in your Under wager. I’m opting to see if the line will budge up to 8.5, but even if that doesn’t happen, I’ll still be on this under at 8.
Play: UNDER 8/8.5