The Toronto Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners on October 12, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 8:03 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Blue Jays will be catching the Mariners in a favorable spot Sunday, as the two teams begin a best-of-seven series with a trip to the World Series on the line. Seattle earned its way into this series with a victory in the 15th inning over the Tigers Friday evening before flying across the continent for this matchup.
The Blue Jays are highly unlikely to hold such a noteworthy pitching advantage in any other game of this series as they do in Game One, as Bryce Miller (5.53 ERA, 86 and 1/3 IP) will pitch on short rest versus Kevin Gausman (3.47 ERA, 189 and 1/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Mariners vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mariners vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Mariners vs Blue Jays picks: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+115 | Play to +105, FanDuel)
My Mariners vs Blue Jays best bet is Blue Jays -1.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +136 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +134 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -164 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -162 |
| RHP Bryce Miller (SEA) | Stat | RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-6 | W-L | 10-11 |
| 0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.1 |
| 5.68/5.32 | ERA /xERA | 3.59/3.70 |
| 5.17/4.60 | FIP / xFIP | 3.41/3.77 |
| 1.41 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 10.2% | K-BB% | 17.9% |
| 37.9% | GB% | 36.7% |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 96 | Location+ | 103 |
Nick Martin’s Mariners vs Blue Jays Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Back End Arms Hold Up
The Mariners' greatest advantage in this series will be the overall depth of their pitching staff, a point that will be particularly true if Bryan Woo is able to return and pitch at a high level after being reinstated to the roster for the ALCS. A win in this matchup would greatly boost the Mariners' chances of being first to four wins, as Bryce Miller is the worst pitcher that will start for Seattle in this series.
Miller finished the regular season with an xERA of 5.29 and an xFIP of 4.60 in 86 and 1/3 innings of work. He was in the second lowest percentile in terms of hard-hit rate and held a strikeout minus walk rate of just 10.2%.
Miller will also be working one-day short of regular rest in this matchup, after offering a fairly uneven performance Wednesday in Game 4 versus the Tigers. He allowed four hits and two earned runs across four and one third innings of work, allowed an xBA of .327, and generated just two strikeouts.
Mariners relievers finished the season with the ninth-best ERA in baseball and held the 12th-highest strikeout minus walk rate in MLB. The bullpen arms that made the ALDS roster combined for an average Stuff+ of 107, the highest combined mark of any bullpen this postseason.
While their big names in Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez were quite effective defensively this season, the Mariners were still a below-average side overall in the field, finishing as the fifth-worst defensive team in baseball based on Fielding Run Value.
The Mariners held a wRC+ of 111 versus right-handed pitching in the final two months of the regular season, but struggled offensively in the ALDS, which was a key reason the series extended into the 15th inning of Game 5. Seattle finished the series with a wRC+ of 83 and struck out 27.8% of the time and hit just .207 at the plate.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Favorable Matchup For Blue Jay Bats
The Blue Jays' low-strikeout, quality-contact-based approach led to extremely strong results last round versus a solid New York Yankees rotation. Led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 1.609 OPS, the Blue Jays held a wRC+ of 168 versus the Yankees in the ALDS. They struck out just 14.9% of the time and held an expected weighted on-base average of .369.
Gausman entered the postseason in tremendous form, as he pitched to an ERA of 2.98 and an xFIP of 3.25 in his final 57 and 1/3 innings of work in the regular season. Gausman made one appearance last round versus the Yankees, allowing just one earned run across five and 2/3 innings of work in his Game One start.
Star shortstop Bo Bichette has been left off the roster for the ALCS, while Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt both made the cut in this round after being left off the ALDS roster.
Bichette's absence at the plate is obviously significant, but he is a drastically below average fielder, and Andres Gimenez offers a considerable upgrade defensively to a side that already fielded the ball very well this season.
The Blue Jays hit to a wRC+ of 113 versus right-handed pitching this season, and Bichette's absence in the lineup has been more notable of late in matchups versus left-handed pitching, though the Blue Jays were able to beat up on Max Fried and Carlos Rodon in the divisional round.
On paper, Miller offers a pretty favorable matchup to a Blue Jays lineup that has hit righties quite well this season. The Blue Jays rank sixth and second, respectively, versus four-seamers and splitters this season, which could make it particularly difficult for Miller to generate weak contact in this matchup.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Prediction, Betting Analysis
This sets up as a good spot to target another strong offensive performance from a Blue Jays side that terrorized much higher quality starters than Miller last round. Miller has allowed a ton of hard contact while generating very few strikeouts this season, and both of those weaknesses could prove particularly concerning in a matchup versus a very disciplined Blue Jays lineup.
Gausman has pitched extremely well in the final third of the season, and kicked off the postseason with a solid performance in Game One versus the Yankees. While the Mariners offer the better bullpen between the two sides, the Blue Jays unit is in better shape from a rest perspective entering this matchup.
At +115 I see value in betting the Blue Jays to win by two runs or more in this matchup. It also presents as an interesting spot to sprinkle on the Blue Jays winning by a significant margin, given that Seattle may end up pitching it's softest available arms if trailing late in order to allow itself a better chance in Game 2.
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 +115 (FanDuel, Play to +105)
Moneyline
There does appear to be value in betting the Blue Jays to win at -165, but in this specific spot I much prefer taking the longer price to target the Blue Jays winning by two or more.
Run Line (Spread)
As outlined, my favorite play from this matchup is backing the Blue Jays to cover at +115.
Over/Under
The total appears to be accurate.
Mariners vs Blue Jays Betting Trends
