The Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers on October 9, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 9:08 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on HBO Max.
Read on for my Cubs vs Brewers prediction and NLDS Game 4 picks for Thursday, October 9th.
My Brewers vs Cubs Prediction
- Brewers vs Cubs picks: Brewers ML (-125, bet365 | Play to -140)
My Brewers vs Cubs best bet is on Milwaukee's moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Cubs Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7 -120o / 100u | -125 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 7 -120o / 100u | +105 |
Brewers vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) | Stat | LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 17-6 | W-L | 14-8 |
| 3.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.4 |
| 2.70 / 3.46 | ERA / xERA | 3.21 / 3.74 |
| 3.65 / 3.85 | FIP / xFIP | 3.65 / 4.22 |
| 1.08 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 3.1 | K-BB% | 3.7 |
| 37.3 | GB% | 37.9 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 104 | Location+ | 107 |
Sean Paul’s Brewers vs Cubs Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
The Cubs had to have game three to force a game four, and knocking Quinn Priester out in the first inning did the job.
In games one and two, the porous performances from Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga gave the Cubs almost no chance to win. Jameson Taillon surrendered just two runs in four innings, which was enough to lead the Cubs to a game three win.
Boyd, who failed to finish an inning in game one, will aim for redemption in game four. He didn't get much help from his defense, as only two of his six runs allowed were earned.
He really scuffled down the stretch. Boyd posted a 6.08 ERA across his final seven regular-season outings in 37 1/3 innings and also hasn't played well in the playoffs.
Boyd was always due for regression. He had worse underlying numbers than his ERA all year, but this regression is pretty crazy for an All-Star. He seems to be running out of gas in his first full season in years — and the biggest workload of his career.
The Cubs' offense showed up early in game three, scoring each of their four runs in the first inning. Michael Busch pitched in with another home run, and they'll need more of that from arguably their best hitter.
Chicago found its offensive stride in September, ranking fourth in MLB with a 113 wRC+. The Cubs have struggled to crack the tougher pitching in the playoffs, scoring four or fewer runs in each of their six playoff games.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
Freddy Peralta allowed just two runs in his game one outing, both via solo home runs. He also struck out nine hitters and walked three, so it was basically the most Peralta start ever.
He lives up in the zone with a mid-to-high 90s fastball that can lead to homers if poorly located or walks if he loses the zone. However, he's one of the better pitchers in the game when he's locating his pitches well.
Peralta is sensational at generating weak contact, ranking in the 80th percentile among qualified pitchers in average exit velocity allowed and 90th in hard-hit rate allowed. That's a bit different for a pitcher who throws his four-seam fastball over 56% of the time, but his fastball is so elite that it's tough to barrel up.
The Brewers' offense came back to earth in September, falling to 14th in MLB with a 101 wRC+. They and the Blue Jays have such a tough offensive approach. Nothing comes easy against either, but the Brewers are particularly tough. They finished September ranked among the top five MLB lineups in both walk and strikeout rate.
One of the significant differences for Milwaukee in the NLDS is the performance of Jackson Chourio. He looked totally lost for the last month of the regular season, but he's flipped the script by hitting .545 thus far in the postseason. One of the bigger knocks on Milwaukee is its lack of star power. I feel comfortable with the star power of Chourio and Christian Yelich.
Milwaukee also has a bullpen advantage. With Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe occupying the 8th and 9th innings, it'll be tough for the Cubs to stage a late-inning comeback.
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
I have zero reason to back Boyd here.
Was he a bit unlucky in game one? Sure.
But Peralta is by far the more reliable pitcher, and I can't put out a pick for a pitcher who pitched poorly for well over a month.
Pick: Brewers ML (-125, bet365 | Play to -140)
