Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, October 13.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 2 and Brewers vs. Dodgers Game 1. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, October 13
Series Moneyline Corner
I initially projected the Dodgers at over 70% for the NLCS against the Brewers. Still, I do give Milwaukee a slightly greater chance than initially forecasted after factoring in Jacob Misiorowski – and the Brewers' bullpen – for a more significant workload in this series.
Updated projections from FanGraphs (70.4%), ATC (72.1%), The BAT (73.6%), and OOPSY (71.7%) all forecast the Dodgers as more significant favorites – but those projections are based upon overall roster strength, not a game by game computation, and playoff roster consolidation helps an underdog with an elite bullpen in a high variance sport.
The Dodgers opened around -180 (64.3% implied) after the Brewers clinched the NLCS, but they have shot up to -200 (66.7% implied) or higher as of Sunday night. While I still show a slight edge on the defending champions, I wouldn't necessarily play them past -190 (a two percent edge) or -198 (a one percent edge) to win the series (or the NL) before Game 1.
At Caesars, I show a very slight edge on the Dodgers to either sweep 4-0 (listed +800) or to win 4-1 (listed +375) but those prices aren't wide enough to take action; I'd want at least +817 or +406 – respectively – to place those bets with at least a one percent edge compared to my number.
In the ALCS, the Mariners crucially stole Game 1 as +140 underdogs, flipping their series line (and AL Pennant odds) from +120 (45.5% implied) to -225 (69.2% implied).
The majority of books are at -240 on Seattle, but I show a slight edge compared to that -225 number at Fanduel; still, that edge is partially tied to their Game 2 odds (which I took, below), and I'd want -215 or better to actually place a wager.
I also show a slight edge on Seattle to win 4-1 (projected +309, listed +325 at Caesars) but their rotation for Games 3-5 at home remains unclear; I'd project Bryan Woo, George Kirby, and Luis Castillo to start those contests, but Woo could either start Game 3 or sit on the sidelines entirely (especially after Bryce Miller's Game 1 effort) and continue to rest for a potential World Series start.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -140 |
Logan Gilbert vs. Trey Yesavage
The market assumed that Luis Castillo — who started Game 2 and recorded four crucial outs (on 15 pitches) in his first career relief appearance to pick up the win in Game 5 — would start Game 2 of the ALCS.
Still, the Mariners seem hesitant to deploy Castillo on the road, as he has been a far more effective pitcher at T-Mobile Park (3.77 xFIP, 17.9% K-BB%) than he has been away from home (4.49 xFIP, 12.9% K-BB%). His splits were even more drastic last season (3.26 xFIP, 22.8% K-BB% at home vs. 4.51, 11.9% on the road).
Logan Gilbert also has shown a notable home/road split (career 3.24 xFIP, 23.7% K-BB% at home vs. 3.82 xFIP, 18.2% K-BB% on the road). Still, he is undoubtedly the Mariners' highest-upside option for Game 2, ranking sixth among qualified starters in xFIP (3.05) and third in K-BB% (24.3%) over the past two seasons.
I'd project the Blue Jays near -125 favorites for Game 2 with Trey Yesavage (4.14 xERA, 3.23 xFIP, 14.5% K-BB%, 106 Stuff+, 99 Pitching+, 4.47 botERA) facing Castillo (4.09 xERA, 4.09 xFIP, 15.6% K-BB%, 96 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+, 4.21 botERA).
However, I make them about a coin flip against Gilbert (3.03 xERA, 2.95 xFIP, 26.5% K-BB%, 96 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+, 3.66 botERA).
The start is certainly a unique spot for Gilbert, six days removed from his last start but on two days of rest after his first career relief appearance, where he tossed 34 pitches across two innings. While that was a throwing day for Gilbert anyway, those were also high-stress innings.
Still, the 22-year-old Yesavage offers a broader range of outcomes, following his dominant ALDS outing against the Yankees. He has excellent stuff, including a ridiculous splitter (122 Stuff+), but Yesavage showed spotty command both in the minors (10.5% walk rate in 2025) and in his brief MLB sample (93 Location+, 11.3% walk rate).
In general, I don't love the head-to-head series matchup for the Mariners; they strike out a ton and play below-average defense, while the Blue Jays put everything in play and are arguably the best defensive team in the league.
On paper, these offenses matched one another against right-handed pitching (T-5th, 117 wRC+) over the final two months of the season. However, I rate the Mariners' offense as the better unit, with Bo Bichette (134 wRC+) still out for the Jays.
Moreover, depending on how they align their rotation, the Mariners could have the starting pitching advantage in every game for the remainder of the series, and they also have a far superior bullpen (4th in xFIP, 5th in K-BB% post-trade deadline; Toronto ranks 15th and 26th, respectively).
I project the Mariners as slight underdogs (projected +101) and set the total at 7.4 runs.
Pick: Mariners ML (+105 or Better)
Dodgers vs. Brewers
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
Blake Snell vs. TBD
Freddy Peralta will start Game 2 for the Brewers on regular rest, leaving Pat Murphy to navigate the Dodgers' lineup in Game 1 while utilizing one of Quinn Priester or Jose Quintana to turn over the Dodgers' lineup multiple times.
The Phillies were able to neutralize Shohei Ohtani and the other left-handed bats for the Dodgers with their southpaw starting pitching, as deploying Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, and Ranger Suarez for the majority of their NLDS innings provided a significant boost. We saw something similar when the Dodgers faced the Mets' left-handed starting pitching, including Quintana, Sean Manaea and David Peterson, last postseason.
Jose Quintana (5.18 xERA, 4.92 xFIP, 7.0% K-BB%, 91 Pitching+, 5.11 botERA) and Robert Gasser (5.11 xERA in limited 2025 action; career 4.65 xFIP, 11.2% K-BB%, 96 Pitching+, 3.10 botERA) are the Brewers' only left-handed options who can turn over a lineup multiple times.
Otherwise, they'll rely heavily upon Aaron Ashby (3.09 xERA, 2.97 xFIP, 19.3% K-BB%, 121 Pitching+, 3.44 botERA) and Jared Koenig (2.72 xERA, 3.80 xFIP, 17.9% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 3.72 botERA) to generate key outs in every competitive game of this series.
I'd anticipate the right-handed Priester (3.62 xERA, 3.81 xFIP, 12.6% K-BB%, 97 Pitching+, 4.59 botERA) will follow one of the left-handed relievers (likely Ashby) who serve as an opener in Game 1.
Priester couldn't get out of the inning in Game 3 against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, and I'm sure they'd rather pitch him at Home in Game 1, as opposed to Games 3, 4 or 5 in Los Angeles (his home/road splits were virtually identical; 3.77 vs 3.84 xFIP, with a higher ERA at home)
Blake Snell (3.20 xERA, 3.09 xFIP, 18.1% K-BB%, 113 Pitching+, 3.49 botERA) has looked as dominant as ever this postseason after an excellent second half (2.42 xFIP, 24%, K-BB%). However, the Brewers present an annoying matchup, posting the lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in September (third lowest on the season). The Brewers' lineup will attempt to foul pitches off, rack up Snell's pitch count, and get to the Dodgers' bullpen early and often each game.
The Dodgers were able to consolidate their pitching staff — and hide their worst relievers — in a five-game series against the Phillies, but could get exposed in a seven-game set if their starters efficiently handle a pesky Brewers lineup.
In a similar respect, however, while Pat Murphy was able to continuously trot out his elite relievers in a five-game series against the Cubs, he's going to have to pick his spots where to let his guys potentially take some damage and let his team live to play another day across seven games.
I'd expect to see some blowouts in a long series between these clubs, for either team, as both managers divert to their 'B' relievers with a multi-run deficit. However, you can anticipate that Murphy will keep deploying his bullpen aggressively, ahead of a Freddy Peralta start, to take Game 1 at home.
The Brewers will have their best chances (projection-wise) in Games 2 and 6 at home, with Peralta presumably facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto in both. Still, to survive Game 6, they're going to need to take either Game 1 or one of the three on the road in Los Angeles.
Assuming Jose Quintana does not start Game 1 for Milwaukee, I'd project the Dodgers as -135 favorites and set the total at 7.13 runs.
As a result, I don't show value on either side at current odds, but I would bet the Under down to 7.5 (-105).
Pick: Under 7.5 (Bet to -105)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, October 13
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- Dodgers/Brewers Under 8 (-115, 0.5uu) at Fanatics and (-118, 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to 7.5 (-105)
- Seattle Mariners (+115, 1u) at ESPNBet; bet to +105
