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Braves vs. Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Ian Anderson and Atlanta (May 4)

Braves vs. Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Ian Anderson and Atlanta (May 4) article feature image
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Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Ian Anderson.

Braves vs. Mets Odds

Braves Odds +105
Mets Odds -125
Over/Under 7 (-120/-100)
Time 1:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Ian Anderson and the Atlanta Braves will match up in the finale of a four-game set with Tylor Megill and the New York Mets. Anderson and Megill are neck-and-neck when it comes to xERA and their respective peripherals. Megill comes into this game with a 2.83 xERA, while Anderson’s stands at 3.11.

The telling part is the luck each pitcher has received. Anderson still owns a 4.66 ERA versus Megill’s 1.93 ERA. Essentially, the main crux for Anderson is his inability to throw strikes this season. He has a 13.3% Walk Rate, which is up from his past two seasons, where he floated around 10%. That number is still high, but Anderson should regress positively. Megill will come back to earth a bit.

The Mets may have the second-best wRC+ against righties this season, but they have been getting lucky, as well. They rank second-to-last, ahead of only the Saint Louis Cardinals, in Hard Hit Percentage. Atlanta ranks eighth.

Since these two starters don’t differ too much, and Atlanta should finally have some favorable fortune going forward, the Braves at plus money is the right call here.

Anderson Should Get the Braves Out to a Strong Start

Anderson has been encouraging, aside from the walks this season. The Mets rank ninth in Walk Rate, and their patience at the dish is part of the reason they have seen the fortunate results they have so far. However, Anderson has had strong appearances in two of four starts, walking two batters or fewer.

The encouraging side is he does not permit much hard contact. His Barrel Percentage is 5.5%, down 4% from last season when he owned a very average 4.32 xERA. This was the pitcher he looked to be in 2020’s shortened season. Of the Mets’ starters, only three are averaging at least 90 MPH off the bat against righties. Anderson should be able to exploit this. After all, his xSLG is even more enlightening at .358.

The Atlanta bullpen has been sharp this season, too, with a 3.35 ERA and 3.45 xFIP. Anderson has proven his viability to go deep into games, throwing six innings in his last outing, but the Braves have multiple arms with a sub-3.00 xFIP. Once Anderson exits, they can carry the brunt of the latter innings.

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Can Megill Stay Hot for the Mets?

On the flip side, Megill may have a similar Barrel Percentage as Anderson, but his 90+ MPH Average Exit Velocity is a bit concerning. The Braves have at least five starters with 90+ MPH Exit Velocities against right-handed pitching this season.

On a getaway day after a doubleheader, the Braves have bench pieces in William Contreras, Travis Demeritte, and Orlando Arcia who also hit the ball hard. This could be a problem for Megill, and this group does not include Ronald Acuña, either.

Still, they also have five batters with above a .400 xwOBA when facing righties, as well. This should give them an edge against Megill, even if he and Anderson profile as similar throwers coming into this game.

Like the Braves, the Mets have been outstanding out of the ‘pen. Megill has also gone at least five innings in each outing this season, so they will only need to handle about four innings of work. Unlike a normal outing, they should not have much of an edge in this department. The bullpens are a wash for both of these teams.

Braves-Mets Pick

Anderson and Megill are equal pitchers, but since Megill will allow harder contact against a team that hits the ball harder than his own, Anderson should win this duel.

The Braves are eventually going to come onto the scene. They are far too good, given the results in the early going of this season. Both bullpens are a wash. Take the Braves at +105, and play to -110.

Pick: Atlanta Braves +105 | play to -110

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