Brewers vs. Mets MLB Odds & Pick: Monday’s Betting Value on Milwaukee (July 5)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Woodruff #53 of the Milwaukee Brewers.
- The Milwaukee Brewers head to Queens to face the New York Mets as they continue their seven game road trip.
- The Brewers have one of the top records in baseball and have won 13 of their past 15 games, but can they keep rolling?
- Michael Arinze previews Monday's matchup and shares a pick and prediction below.
Editor’s Note: You can find our preview of Tuesday’s game between the Brewers and Mets here.
Brewers vs. Mets Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday afternoon and via PointsBet.|
The Milwaukee Brewers had their 11-game winning streak snapped on Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates. They’ll look to start a new streak when they head to the Big Apple to take on a Mets team that should be in good spirits after a subway series win over their crosstown rivals.
Brewers’ ace Brandon Woodruff will get the start on Monday night, and Mets rookie Tylor Megill will oppose him. Megill hasn’t factored in the decision in either of his first two starts, but the Mets did manage to win both games.
The California native has been somewhat of a good luck charm for the Mets but can that streak continue against a red-hot Brewers team?
Let’s dig into this matchup and see if there’s any edge we can take advantage of at the betting window.
Can the Brewers Perform vs. Top Teams?
Milwaukee’s recent run puts it just three games behind San Francisco for the best record in the National League. However, eight of their 11 wins were against the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Pirates — all of whom combined 74 games under .500.
Milwaukee did manage to sweep the Cubs, who previously held the division lead but are mired in a nine-game losing streak. In sports, you can only play who’s in front of you, but there’s no question that the schedule broke kindly for the Brewers.
This should be an interesting series against the Mets, who are finally close to having their full complement of offensive players available again.
If not for Jacob deGrom’s impressive season, Woodruff might be the pitcher on everyone’s lips for the Cy Young award. All he’s done is post a 7-3 mark with a 1.87 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. It’s hard to have an ERA that’s below two without having your advanced numbers point to some regression.
Nonetheless, Woodruff’s predictive numbers are more than serviceable, as evidenced by his 2.52 xERA and 2.79 FIP. He’s also defeated the Mets when he’s faced them and compiled a 1.80 ERA in those meetings. This current group of Mets hitters only has 23 at-bats against Woodruff but their .391/.481/.391 line is quite impressive.
Earlier this season, I highlighted Woodruff’s balanced approach on the mound and his ability to throw five different pitches. According to FanGraphs Pitch Info Values, Woodruff is above average in runs allowed for all five pitches in his arsenal.
The thing to watch in this matchup will be how the Mets fair against his sinker. It’s the second most thrown pitch(28%) in his arsenal, and while Woodruff is 11 runs above average with that pitch this season, New York is in the top-five of the league against the pitch with 7.5 runs above average.
Have the Mets Found a Gem?
One of the mysteries in baseball is that you never know how a young pitcher will perform when he’s thrust into the fire. Mets’ skipper Luis Rojas has spoken glowingly of Megill following his first two starts in the big leagues.
“He’s been a blessing for us,” Rojas said. “Because this is one need that we had, and he happened to be the guy who was throwing the ball — the best right-hander for us — and he got the call-up for us, and he’s been responding well.”
Megill’s success shuffling between Double-A and Triple-A led to his call-up as he was 2-1 with a 3.35 ERA in his eight starts. Per Baseball Savant, the right-hander has a four-pitch mix in his arsenal: A four-seamer (59.3%), a slider (24.3%), and changeup (14.1%) and a curveball (2.3%). And while he’s only thrown 177 pitches in the majors, there are some positive takeaways from his performance thus far.
For one, Megill has a plus-fastball that averages 94.8 mph. He’s able to pitch down and on the inner part of the strike zone to right-handed hitters. In addition, he has good separation with his changeup that’s almost 9.4 miles per hour slower than his fastball. Hitters overall have a .222 against him, and his 4.82 ERA really belies his performance in the two starts.
Megill has a 2.0 xERA, but he’s been a bit susceptible to the long ball (22.2% HR/FB) in his nine innings of work. However, the Mets have done well to limit his exposure by yanking him at the first sign of trouble. This is why Megill has yet to complete five innings, but the Mets have plenty of confidence in turning to their bullpen that’s 21-13 on the season.
There is a bit of uncertainty with this game, considering that this is the first meeting between the two teams since 2019, and it’s also the first time Milwaukee will face Megill.
My model is a bit more bullish on the Brewers in this spot as it makes them closer to a -160 road favorite. Since the 2017 season, the Brewers are 5-1 as a favorite and 14-6 for 8.91 units overall against the Mets.
While Woodruff is undefeated against New York, the Mets lineup has shown what they can do if they’re close to full strength after outscoring the Yankees 20-12 in the weekend series.
Although I think the Mets are a live dog, I would need closer +140 to consider them as a side. And with this being Megill’s third start, I’m less inclined to get involved in this game. Instead, I’d prefer to watch from afar to see if there’s something I can glean from him that would help me in one of his later starts.
Just as I was wrapping this up, I glanced at our live odds page and saw that Milwaukee is currently down to as low as -135 in the market. Keep in mind that the Brewers are 7-1 for 6.15 units this season when it’s lower than a -140 favorite with Woodruff is on the mound.
I still need to see more of Megill as a pitcher, so this game would only be a strong lean for me with the visiting Brewers.
Lean: Brewers ML (-135)