Brewers vs. Mets Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet First 5 Innings Total, Not Full Game

Brewers vs. Mets Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet First 5 Innings Total, Not Full Game article feature image
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Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom

Brewers vs. Mets Odds

Brewers Odds +230
Mets Odds +278
Over/Under 6.5
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds as of 12:30 a.m. and via DraftKings.

The Tuesday night baseball matchup between the NL Central leading Milwaukee and NL East leading New York Mets could serve as a potential playoff preview.

Tuesday’s matchup has lost a bit of its luster because instead of two of the NL’s best pitchers in Corbin Burnes and Jacob deGrom facing one another, Brett Anderson and Milwaukee will face deGrom and the Mets at Citi Field.

deGrom is the overwhelming favorite for the NL Cy Young, while Anderson has a 7.20 expected ERA and has been one of the league’s worst pitchers all season. Because of deGrom’s dominance and the Mets above average ground ball rate against Anderson’s sinker, the under has value in the first five innings.

Does Brewers’ Anderson Get Slight Matchup Bump?

Few teams in MLB are hotter than Milwaukee, who surged ahead into first place in the NL Central by six games following a 10-game winning streak that ended on Sunday. The Brewers are carried by their elite starting pitching and bullpen, but Anderson has been a low point for them as a regular starter.

His surface level numbers aren’t that encouraging, and his underlying ones are borderline worse. Anderson has a 4.69 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, with an underwhelming 5.8 K/9 rate. His biggest issue is leaving his sinker up in the zone where it’s been punished for a .403 xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) and a 7.20 xERA.

But Anderson does have some favorable matchups in this game with the Mets, who rank 12th highest in ground ball rate and have struggled against lefties throughout the season. NYM is 22nd in wRC+ against LHP this season at Citi Field and and top 10 in soft contact rate, the kind of contact Anderson will be looking to create in the first five innings.

Anderson has shown improvements in his last 50 batters faced, where he’s only been a slightly below league average pitcher. He’s a lefty that’s been around for 12 years and been consistently mediocre, so it’s unlikely that he’ll continue to pitch at the level of one of the league’s worst starters.


deGrom Will ‘Bounce Back’ for Mets

deGrom had his worst start of the season against Atlanta in his last outing, when the Braves tagged him for three runs in the opening inning and totaled the same three runs across seven total for deGrom. He allowed a two-run home run to Austin Riley but shut down the Braves afterward.

His ERA is all the way up to 0.95 after the Braves barreled a few balls against him early. But a look at this Brewers lineup doesn’t offer much optimism for them against deGrom on Tuesday night. Milwaukee has a 93 wRC+ vs. righties away from Miller Park this year, and a top 10 strikeout rate. They rely on walks to get baserunners against righties, but deGrom isn’t giving out many free passes.

Most teams don’t hit deGrom at all, but when they do, it comes from solo home runs and slugging as opposed to stringing together rallies. But this Brewers lineup is 19th in ISO against righties this year. It’s a lineup that has performed better of late but isn’t as good as their recent 10-game winning streak would suggest.

Brewers vs. Mets Pick

I’m staying away from the full game under because the Brewers are likely to be losing this game and will use their less effective, lower leverage relievers in the later innings. With a total at 6.5, there’s not much room for cover.

But in the first five innings, under 3.5 is playable at -135 or better. deGrom should dominate the Brewers overmatched lineup and the bigger ballpark at Citi Field should help the sinker-reliant Anderson to keep the ball in the park and allow the Brewers elite defense to turn the Mets high groundball rate into enough outs the first two times through the order.

Pick: Under 3.5 first five innings

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