Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ross Stripling
Betting odds: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, 10:10 p.m. ET
- Dodgers (Ross Stripling): -190
- Padres (Tyson Ross): +170
- Over/under: 7.5 (o-115)
Ross Stripling — NL All-Star Ross Stripling, that is — is a new man this season. One might call him a boss.
I guess that could also refer to Tyson Ross, the Padres’ starter tonight, but Stripling is the man I’m eyeing this evening. With a 2.22 ERA and 10.38 K/9 this year, Stripling has blossomed into an elite arm.
In nine of his last 10 starts, he’s struck out at least six batters. One of those was against these same Padres, when he fanned a season-high 10 batters.
Even with all that said, one book is currently offering a strikeout over/under of just 5.5. Even though the juice on the over is -159, I think it’s a price worth paying.
The Padres’ projected lineup has a strikeout rate of nearly 26% against righties, which is the second-highest K rate of the 20 teams playing today. FantasyLabs is projecting Stripling to get 8.5 strikeouts, three higher than the prop.
It’s also worth mentioning that Stripling has seven pro trends on FantasyLabs, third most on the slate, and the Padres are expected to get only 3.2 runs, second-lowest on the slate. My confidence spikes for props when the pitcher is also expected to do well in general. You can’t strike out enough guys if you get roughed up in the early going and pitch only four innings.
The Dodgers are big favorites, and if Stripling can go six solid innings, he should punch out at least six.
The pick: Ross Stripling over 5.5 strikeouts (-159)