Dodgers vs. Brewers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Put Faith in Milwaukee Starter Eric Lauer (Wednesday, August 17)

Dodgers vs. Brewers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Put Faith in Milwaukee Starter Eric Lauer (Wednesday, August 17) article feature image

Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Milwaukee Brewers starter Eric Lauer

  • Milwaukee closes out its three-game series with Los Angeles.
  • The Dodgers now have the best record in baseball while the Brewers recently surrendered the NL Central lead.
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and makes his case for the underdog.

Dodgers vs. Brewers Odds

Dodgers Odds-175
Brewers Odds+150
Over/Under8 (-115 / -105)
Time8:10 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

With the Yankees struggling in August and the Dodgers having won eight of their last 10 games, Los Angeles has overtaken New York for the best record in all of baseball.

The Dodgers have 80 wins and a +250 run differential on the season, which also leads all of baseball.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, led the National League Central division until recently. The Cardinals have overtaken the lead by two games on the Brewers, so every game now carries even more importance for Milwaukee.

Who will get the job done and take home the victory in this one?

Los Angeles Dodgers Brings Road Runs

Brewers starter Eric Lauer has a 4.79 xFIP this year. The left-hander has allowed a .209 ISO to right-handed hitters this season.

Mookie Betts and Trea Turner each have ISOs above .280 against left-handed pitching this season.

Lauer has pitched better at home this year and has a 2.65 ERA at American Family Field compared to 4.48 on the road.

The Dodgers offense, meanwhile, leads all of baseball with 5.48 runs per game on the road.

Lauer is yet to face the Dodgers this season, but he has completed at least five innings while allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his last three starts.

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Milwaukee Brewers Starter Tony Gonsolin Happy at Home

Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has a 4.36 xFIP this season, and he's allowed a .159 ISO to right-handed hitters this season.

Brewers hitters Willy Adames, Tyrone Taylor, and Hunter Renfroe each have ISOs above .220 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Brewers are 10th in all of baseball with 4.58 runs per game at home this season.

Gonsolin hasn't faced the Brewers yet this year. He's completed at least five innings in his last 17 starts. He's also pitched better at home, though, with a 1.53 ERA compared to a 2.98 ERA on the road.

Gonsolin's .210 wOBA allowed goes up to .277 wOBA allowed on the road.

Dodgers-Brewers Pick

I'm seeing value on the Brewers at +150 here, so I'm on Milwaukee.

Gonsolin has a 2.24 ERA, but his xFIP is more than two full runs higher. I believe he's being overrated by Vegas here considering the matchup against the Brewers on the road.

Lauer, on the other, is being underrated against a good Dodgers lineup. Additionally, Los Angeles is better against right-handed pitching, and Lauer is a lefty.

I took the Brewers on the moneyline at +150 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pick: Brewers ML +150

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