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How Jacob deGrom’s Injury Setback & Deadline Day Changed Mets’ Odds

How Jacob deGrom’s Injury Setback & Deadline Day Changed Mets’ Odds article feature image

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom.

A wild July that saw the most All-Stars (10) in MLB history change teams in a single season will end on a somber note.

New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom is said to have suffered a setback during rehab for a forearm strain he sustained earlier this month, reported Friday.

The publication said the soonest deGrom will likely return is in September.

Friday was supposed to be a day of mild celebration in Mets circles after the team acquired Javier Báez in a Trade Deadline deal with the Chicago Cubs.

Instead, Mets fans can only hope the injury doesn’t prevent deGrom from returning at some point this season.

New York is mired in a three-way race for the National East crown. Entering play on Friday, the Mets were 3.5 games up on the Philadelphia Phillies and four games ahead of the Atlanta Braves.

But the Phillies and Braves both also made moves to help their causes on deadline day.

The Phillies acquired starter Kyle Gibson and reliever Ian Kennedy to help their woeful pitching staff. Gibson has a 2.87 ERA over 19 starts so far this season while Kennedy has a 2.51 ERA through 32 1/3 innings.

Meanwhile, the Braves traded for outfielder Joc Pedersen earlier this month and made deadline day deals for outfielders Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario along with reliever Richard Rodriguez.

It’s clear both the Phillies and Braves see the Mets as vulnerable.

Still, New York remains the clear favorite in betting markets to win the NL East.

The Mets were -270 favorites to win the NL East at FanDuel, -310 favorites at DraftKings and -275 favorites at PointsBet prior to deadline day.

After the Mets, Phillies and Braves made trades to bolster their rosters, New York became -300 favorites to win the division at FanDuel but stayed at the same odds at the other two sportsbooks.

Following the deGrom injury setback news, the Mets reverted to -230 favorites to win the NL East at FanDuel and -250 favorites at DraftKings. Their odds actually shortened nominally at PointsBet to -280.

It’s important to note that the best — and likely the only — way for the Mets to make the playoffs will be by winning their division. If play stopped today and the Mets were thrown into the wild card race, New York would be four games behind the second wild card San Diego Padres.

For reference, FanGraphs gave the Mets a 73.3% chance to win their division but only a 1.4% chance to win a wild card spot heading into play on Friday.

As for World Series odds, the Mets were + 1000 at FanDuel, +850 at DraftKings and +900 at PointsBet to win it all prior to trade deadline day.

After the NL East teams made their gambles, the odds at DraftKings moved to +800 but did not change at the other books.

deGrom’s forearm setback lengthened the Mets’ chances to win the World Series substantially. FanDuel moved their lines to +1200, DraftKings upped them to +950 and PointsBet now has New York as +1000 underdogs to win their first World Series since 1986.

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