KBO Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds & Model (Saturday, June 6): Can Ramos Power the Twins Past the Heroes?
Han Myung-Gu/Getty Images.
KBO favorites swept the board for the second consecutive day on Friday, covering each game on the run line again too.
And we will have what seems likely to be the largest favorite of the 2020 KBO season on Saturday at 1:00 a.m ET, with Dinos’ ace Chang-mo Koo (4-0, 0.51 ERA, 0.60 WHIP) facing the Hanwha Eagles ,who have now lost 12 consecutive games.
I project the Dinos as 72.4% road favorites against the Eagles, implied odds of -262, and I anticipate that they will be north of -300 by first pitch. If the Eagles can pull off that upset amid their substantial losing streak, it would be the most memorable upset of the 2020 season to date.
The Dinos (42) lead the KBO in homers by a wide margin, while the Eagles (18) have the fewest in the league, and their sub .650 team OPS seems high if anything.
Hanwha had a league-average offense in 2019, but none of its top bats from last season are performing. Jared Hoying (115 wRC+ to 66 wRC+), Seung-yeol Lee (121 to 61), Jae-hoon Choi (119 wRC+ to 45) and Tae-kyun Kim (115 wRC+ to 15) have each declined substantially in terms of production — putting the offense around 30% below league average as a team; and if they don’t turn things around the Eagles could struggle to win 50 games.
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
Saturday’s featured ESPN game includes the LG Twins and Kiwoom Heroes, who will likely be fighting it out for a top-two spot, with the Doosan Bears, the rest of the way.
- KBO Year to Date: 37-52 (-9.99 Units)
- CPBL Year to Date: 34-25 (+10.48 Units)
KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model
LG Twins vs. Kiwoom Heroes
- Twins moneyline: TBD
- Heroes moneyline: TBD
- Over/under: TBD
- Time: 5:00 a.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- BET NOW
Probable Pitchers: LG Twins (Woo-chan Cha) vs. Kiwoom Heroes (Seung-ho Lee)
The Heroes won their fourth consecutive game — a 6-3 victory over the Twins on Friday — on the strength of a pair of three-run homers from catcher Dong-won Park and superstar shortstop Ha-seong Kim.
Roberto Ramos drove in all three runs for the Twins with his pair of round-trippers, giving the slugger 12 homers in his first 27 KBO games:
Twenty-one-year-old southpaw Seung-ho Lee is the Heroes’ scheduled starter for Saturday. He has posted a 6.28 FIP in five outings this season and most recently allowed three homers and eight runs in 2.2 innings against the KT Wiz.
Lee posted a 4.35 FIP over 23 starts last season and was slightly below league average (4.17 FIP). His 2020 command metrics are on par with 2019, and I still think that he’s around 5-8% worse than a league-average starter.
Lee has some upside, but he needs to harness his refine his command and cut his walk rate down from his current 3.5 per nine-innings.
His Saturday opponent is Tyler Wilson, who sports a 4.15 FIP through his first five 2020 starts, after posting a 3.24 FIP in 2019, and a 3.58 FIP in 2018 for the Twins.
I have discussed the righty a few times already this year, but as a reminder, he offers a below-average fastball (88 mph) with three secondary pitches (slider, changeup, curveball) that all have pretty good movement:
I project the Twins as 54.5% favorites for Saturday, and I would bet the Twins to -104 (implied 51%), which is a 3.5% edge compared to my projection.
Conversely, I would look to bet the Heroes at +141 (implied 41.5%) or better, which is a 4% edge compared to my projection (48%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.
I projected the total at 11.3 runs and would bet Over 10 (-109) or Over 10.5 (+101) at a 3.9% edge.
See all of Saturday’s KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Twins-Heroes game, and Saturday’s other KBO and CPBL games.
LG Twins vs. Kiwoom Heroes Picks
Full KBO Betting Card for June 6
- SK Wyverns +104 (1 unit)
- SK Wyverns Team Total, Over 4.5 (+115, 0.5 units)
- KT Wiz / Lotte Giants, Over 8.5 (-120, 0.5 units)
- KT Wiz Team Team, Over 4.5 (-105, 0.5 units)
- Hanwha Eagles Team Total, Over 2.5 (-105, 0.5 units)
KBO Year to Date: 37-52 (-9.99 Units)
Full CPBL Betting Card for June 6
CPBL Year to Date: 34-25 (+10.48 Units)
Zerillo’s Full KBO + CPBL Model, June 6
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below: