The San Diego Padres (32-24) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (22-37) on Sunday, June 1, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 5:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet PIT and Padres.TV.
Find my Pirates vs Padres prediction and pick for the first five innings (F5) below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Pirates vs Padres Prediction, F5 Pick
- Pirates vs Padres pick: F5 Under 4.5 -105 |Play to -115
My Pirates vs Padres best bet is the first five innings total under 4.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | +130 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -118o / -102u | -155 |
Pirates vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT) | Stat | RHP Randy Vasquez (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.41/4.73 | ERA /xERA | 3.58/5.59 |
| 4.47/4.44 | FIP / xFIP | 4.96/5.53 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.39 |
| 7.9 | K-BB% | 2.1 |
| 44.8 | GB% | 40.7 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 101 | Location+ | 98 |
Doug Ziefel’s Pirates vs Padres Preview
Pirates Betting Preview
There has not been much offense in this series, and surprisingly, the Pittsburgh Pirates provided all of it yesterday in their 5-0 win to even the series. However, we should not expect a repeat performance today, despite the good matchup on paper.
The Pirates are amongst the worst lineups in the league against right-handed pitching, ranking 27th in average, 29th in slugging percentage, and 24th in BABIP. This afternoon, they'll get their cracks at Padres starter Randy Vasquez.
Vasquez has had to be a magician in order to keep his ERA a 3.58. He does not miss bats, but is slightly above average at generating soft contact, which has allowed him to wiggle in and out of trouble, even with traffic on the bases.
Usually, I'd be fading Vasquez as his xERA and contact metrics scream regression, but the Pirates' lineup does not pose much of a threat as they make weak contact and hold the fourth-highest groundball rate in the majors.
Padres Betting Preview
On the other side of this matchup, the San Diego Padres' lineup has underperformed this season, and we've seen them take a big step back in May. Much like the Pirates, they have a great matchup against a starter due for regression in Andrew Heaney, but are not in the right form to capitalize on it.
The Padres do not strike out as they rank second in strikeout rate against lefties and hold the third-lowest whiff rate in baseball. They put the ball in play a ton, but that volume of balls in play does not make a difference when the majority of them are not hit hard.
San Diego has the second-lowest barrel rate and the fourth-lowest hard-hit rate. To compound that, the Padres had the second-highest ground ball rate as well. Weakly hit groundballs are automatic outs in the big leagues and will help any pitcher like Heaney.
Pirates vs Padres Prediction, F5 Betting Analysis
The first two games of this series have sailed under the total, and this one is trending that way as well, despite the pitching matchup. Neither the Pirates nor the Padres have shown the capability to put knock starters out early, and with Heaney and Vasquez primed to work efficiently, we should see the first few innings of this matchup fly by.
Take the under in the first five.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5
Moneyline
I will not be betting on either side of the Moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also staying away from Run Line.
Over/Under
As mentioned above, I see an edge on Unders during the first five innings of the game.
