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Mariners-Angels Betting Preview: Halos a Rare Contrarian Favorite Again

Jul 11, 2018 10:04 AM EDT

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, 10:07 p.m. ET

  • Mariners (Marco Gonzales): +102
  • Angels (Jaime Barria): -112
  • Over/under 8.5 (o-120)

Bet to watch

Yes, this is going to be the same play I had last night, but there’s plenty to like here, so bear with me.

First, the Angels are once again a contrarian favorite. What does this mean? Well, public bettors love favorites, so in the rare case that they take the underdog, there’s a good chance that oddsmakers are baiting them into that bet.

In fact, underdogs getting more than 50% of bets have lost more than $13,000 for a $100 bettor since 2005, per our BetLabs data.

 

Next, the Angels are coming off a win against a better team. To the public, that means they’d be due for a loss tonight — hence the 61% of bettors on Seattle — and oddsmakers are well-aware of that perception. So aware, in fact, that they shade lines significantly to account for it.

Simply taking teams coming off a win against a superior opponent (at least 10 win percentage points better) would’ve made a $100 bettor over $3,000 since 2005. So don’t fall for that “they’re due” narrative — it’s not true.

And for the icing on the cake: sharps are all over the Halos. LA has triggered three Sports Insights Bet Signals, including a steam move at notoriously sharp sportsbook Pinnacle, and has received a higher percentage of money than bets — an indication that bigger, likely sharper wagers are behind the Angels.

Considering that this is somewhat of a perfect storm of factors — and that Bet Labs dates back only to 2016 for money percentages — there isn’t a huge sample size to go by. But combine the following filters …

  • Favorite coming off a win against a better team (at least 10 win percentage points better)
  • Less than 50% of bets
  • Higher money than bet percentage

… and you come up with a system that’s gone 40-22 over the past three seasons, winning 9.9 units for a 15.6% ROI. Favorites less than -120 have been even better: 17-8, 7.1 units won, and a 28.2% ROI.

So even though I still don’t know why they’re favored …

The pick: Angels -112

All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET. For live odds, check out our MLB live odds page.

Credit:

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: The Angels celebrate a 9-3 victory against the Seattle Mariners

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue

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