Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: The Angels celebrate a 9-3 victory against the Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, 10:07 p.m. ET
- Mariners (Marco Gonzales): +102
- Angels (Jaime Barria): -112
- Over/under 8.5 (o-120)
Bet to watch
Yes, this is going to be the same play I had last night, but there’s plenty to like here, so bear with me.
First, the Angels are once again a contrarian favorite. What does this mean? Well, public bettors love favorites, so in the rare case that they take the underdog, there’s a good chance that oddsmakers are baiting them into that bet.
In fact, underdogs getting more than 50% of bets have lost more than $13,000 for a $100 bettor since 2005, per our BetLabs data.
Next, the Angels are coming off a win against a better team. To the public, that means they’d be due for a loss tonight — hence the 61% of bettors on Seattle — and oddsmakers are well-aware of that perception. So aware, in fact, that they shade lines significantly to account for it.
Simply taking teams coming off a win against a superior opponent (at least 10 win percentage points better) would’ve made a $100 bettor over $3,000 since 2005. So don’t fall for that “they’re due” narrative — it’s not true.
And for the icing on the cake: sharps are all over the Halos. LA has triggered three Sports Insights Bet Signals, including a steam move at notoriously sharp sportsbook Pinnacle, and has received a higher percentage of money than bets — an indication that bigger, likely sharper wagers are behind the Angels.
Considering that this is somewhat of a perfect storm of factors — and that Bet Labs dates back only to 2016 for money percentages — there isn’t a huge sample size to go by. But combine the following filters …
- Favorite coming off a win against a better team (at least 10 win percentage points better)
- Less than 50% of bets
- Higher money than bet percentage
… and you come up with a system that’s gone 40-22 over the past three seasons, winning 9.9 units for a 15.6% ROI. Favorites less than -120 have been even better: 17-8, 7.1 units won, and a 28.2% ROI.
So even though I still don’t know why they’re favored …
The pick: Angels -112
All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET. For live odds, check out our MLB live odds page.