MLB Odds & Picks for Marlins vs. Dodgers: Back Underdog With Sandy Alcantara on Hill

MLB Odds & Picks for Marlins vs. Dodgers: Back Underdog With Sandy Alcantara on Hill article feature image

Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Sandy Alcantara (Marlins)

  • The best team in baseball, the Dodgers, face off against the NL East's fourth-place team, the Marlins, in L.A.
  • Miami will send NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara to the hill to counter Los Angeles' power lineup.
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and offers up his reasoning behind his best bet.

Marlins vs. Dodgers Odds

Marlins Odds+140
Dodgers Odds-165
Over/Under7.5 (-105/-115)
Time4:10 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

At 83-36, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in all of baseball entering play Sunday. The Dodgers also have an 18-game lead in their division, the largest in all of baseball.

Los Angeles is right where it wants to be — on its way to another playoff run in October.

The Marlins aren't quite on the same path, as Miami is 16 games below .500.

The beauty of baseball, though, is even the best team can lose to the worst on any given day.

So, who will get the job done and ultimately take home the victory in this one?

How Do Marlins Matchup With Pepiot?

Ryan Pepiot has a 4.26 ERA in 25 innings across six starts with the Dodgers, but his xFIP is much higher at 6.48. Pepiot has completed five innings only once in six starts.

He's also allowed a .220 ISO to right-handed hitters and .170 ISO to left-handed hitters this year.

J.J. Bleday has a .238 ISO against right-handed pitchers this season for the Marlins.

Pepiot has a 5.40 ERA at home compared to a 3.00 ERA on the road. Meanwhile, the Marlins are 25th in all of baseball, averaging 3.79 runs per game on the road this season.

Miami is 3-7 in their last 10 games and 27-34 on the road this season.

Will Dodgers Use Power to Beat Alcantara?

Sandy Alcantara will toe the slab for the Marlins in this one. Alcantara is a -700 favorite to win the National League Cy Young award this season on DraftKings.

He has a 1.92 ERA overall and a 2.25 ERA on the road this year. Alcantara also has allowed an ISO below .100 to both right- and left-handed hitters.

The Dodgers have a lot of power in the lineup against right-handed pitching, as Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger all have ISOs above .200 against RHP this season.

Los Angeles is second in all of baseball, averaging 5.20 runs per game at home this season.

The Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 games and 41-15 at home this season.

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Marlins-Dodgers Pick

The Dodgers are a powerhouse. They've steamrolled the league this year and have by far the best record in all of baseball.

The Marlins are struggling, a fourth-place team going nowhere.

Still, Miami has the future National League Cy Young award winner on the mound, and they're facing Pepiot, who has completed five innings just once in his brief MLB career.

At +150 on DraftKings, the odds on the Marlins' moneyline are simply too good to pass up — even though they have to go on the road to face the imposing Dodgers.

Pick: Marlins ML +150

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