Marlins vs. Red Sox Odds & Pick: Where Is Monday’s Betting Value? (June 7)

In a makeup of a game originally scheduled to be played on May 30, the Miami Marlins are flying into Boston to face the Red Sox, who are predictably heavy favorites.

The Red Sox have a 35-24 record and are in second place in the American League East, while the Marlins are in last place in the NL East at 25-33 record. Generally, a team with Boston’s record should beat a team with Miami’s record about 69.4% of the time at home.

Boston’s core strength as a team is their lineup, but designated hitter J.D. Martinez could miss Monday’s game due to a wrist injury that has kept him out of the Red Sox's last two games. As a heavy favorite with a potentially shorthanded lineup, Boston might have a tough time against right-hander Pablo López and the Miami Marlins.

López Continues Success From 2020

Since the start of last season, López has quietly put together a strong body of work. In 2020, he had a 6-4 record with a 3.61 ERA and 3.73 xFIP. This season, he has improved on everything but the record, which is 1-3. López's 2.82 ERA and 3.51 xFIP put him among the league's best arms.

Part of the reason why the Marlins have only a minus-5 run differential this season is because of their strong starting pitching. On average, the Marlins lose each game by only 0.09 runs, which is why their record is not indicative of their actual performance. Going forward the Marlins, whose record should be closer to 28-29 than 25-33, are going to have many games that they win as underdogs.

While the Marlins are well positioned with López on the mound, their lineup is a clear weakness. Miami is currently averaging only 3.84 runs per game, which is the eighth-lowest total in MLB. The typical team this season is averaging 4.37 runs per game this season, which puts the Fish at 12.1% fewer runs than the average club. Outside of Jesús Aguilar, no player in the Marlins lineup is above average offensively.

Can Boston's Bats Keep This Up?

López will be tasked with containing a Red Sox lineup that is averaging 4.97 runs per game, the fifth most in the league.

With Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo, Boston has a strong offensive core. But that's about it for Boston, which sees its production drop off significantly outside of that quartet. That means not having Martinez is a big blow.

Bettors also have to consider whether the Red Sox's lineup has peaked. Boston’s hitters had a 106 wRC+ entering Sunday night's game against the Yankees, which means they should score 6% more runs than the league average or 4.63 runs per game. The Red Sox are actually averaging 0.34 more than that.

Boston's lineup has carried it to success this year despite getting mediocre pitching from its starting rotation so far. One starting pitcher who has exceeded expectations for the Red Sox, though, is Nick Pivetta.

In his first four seasons in the majors in Philadelphia, Pivetta was a largely mediocre pitcher. This season, he has a 6-1 record with a 3.77 ERA and 4.24 xFIP. However, going into the season Pivetta was projected to have a 4.85 ERA by FanGraphs. Potential Red Sox bettors should be concerned about Pivetta reverting to his preseason projections.

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Marlins-Red Sox Pick

The Marlins are a team that should win between 75-80 games this season, with the Red Sox between 85-90. Even though Boston is the better team, they should not be so heavily favored for this game.

While my model sees some value in the Marlins moneyline at +135, my model sees even more value on Miami over the first five innings.

The Marlins are unlikely to be down after the end of the fifth inning with López on the mound. Additionally, he gets to face an overvalued Red Sox lineup.

Pick: Marlins First Five Innings +125 (play to +110)