Minnesota Twins 2019 Betting Odds, Preview: Powerful Twinkies To Make Push for AL Central Crown

Minnesota Twins 2019 Betting Odds, Preview: Powerful Twinkies To Make Push for AL Central Crown article feature image
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Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano.

  • The Twins have been middling in mediocrity over the past two seasons, and oddsmakers once again expect them to be a .500 ballclub.
  • With offseason acquisitions such as Nelson Cruz and Jonathan Schoop, along with improvements from within, this team has value to go over their win total and fight for a division title.
  • After being shelved last season with injuries, Michael Pineda will also make his Twins debut and will be a integral component of their rotation, which was below-average last year.

Original analysis published on Feb. 20. 

Rocco Baldelli, AKA the Woonsocket Rocket, former 55m dash Rhode Island state champ, is now skipper of the Minnesota Twins. He inherits a team that has middling expectations in the worst division in baseball. They also have one of the best farm systems in baseball.

Hey, Rocco!

A first-time MLB manager, Baldelli has a chance to start winning right away. His team has plenty of veteran talent and young potential. They just need to make the jump from mediocre to legit.

2018 Results

  • Record: 78-84 (-7.0 units), 85-77 ATS (+7.7 units)
  • Over/Under Record: 79-78-5
  • Preseason World Series Odds: 27-1
  • Win Total: 83
  • Most Profitable Starter: Ervin Santana (4-1, +2.6 units)

If you knew ahead of time that the Royals, Tigers and White Sox would all win fewer than 65 games, and the Indians would win just 91, you’d have hammered the over on the Twins’ win total of 83. I guess that’s why there’s no such thing as a lock.

The Twins failed to capitalize on the fact that their division was absolutely horrid and joined their contemporaries in failing to eclipse their win total.

Though a profitable team on the runline, the Twins were marginally unprofitable straight up. They went 12-7 against both the Tigers and White Sox, but just 9-10 against the 58-win Royals. They did beat up on the Orioles (6-1), but if you exclude those four terrible teams, they went an abysmal 39-59.

2019 Odds

  • World Series Odds: +3000
  • Division Odds: +300
  • Win Total O/U: 83.5
  • Playoff Odds: Make +240, Miss -300

The Twinkies are a team I am closely eyeing on both their win total over and division odds. They’re available at +325 right now on the market, which is close to where I wanted them.

In an internal office discussion, Danny Donahue yelled across the room…

Danny: “Twins?”

Mark: “Eh?”

D: “Twins? To win the division?”

M: “Yeah, maybe…hoping for like +350 or +400.”

It’s definitely close. I’ll wait and see what some other books open at and make my decision, but would potentially take +325 if need be.

Roster Notes

  • Additions: Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Marwin Gonzalez, Ronald Torreyes, Martin Perez, Michael Reed, Blake Parker, John Andreoli, Wilin Rosario (minors), Justin Nicolino (minors)
  • Subtractions: Joe Mauer, Ervin Santana, Logan Morrison, Robbie Grossman, Logan Forsythe, Matt Belisle, Chris Gimenez, Oliver Drake, Johnny Field, Alan Busenitz, Zack Granite
  • Potential Lineup
    1. Max Kepler – RF
    2. Jorge Polanco – SS
    3. Nelson Cruz – DH
    4. Eddie Rosario – LF
    5. C.J. Cron – 1B
    6. Jonathan Schoop – 2B
    7. Marwin Gonzalez – 3B
    8. Byron Buxton – CF
    9. Jason Castro – C
  • Projected Rotation
    1. Jose Berrios
    2. Kyle Gibson
    3. Jake Odorizzi
    4. Michael Pineda
    5. Martin Perez
  • Prospect Watch: Stephen Gonsalves (Unranked, LHP), Nick Gordon (Unranked, SS), Lewis Thorpe (Unranked, LHP)
  • Key Injuries: Miguel Sano (Leg, May), Matt Magill (Arm, early 2019), Gabriel Moya (Shoulder, early 2019), Addison Reed (Thumb, early 2019)
  • MVP Candidates: Eddie Rosario (+4000), Nelson Cruz (+5000), Max Kepler (+10000), Byron Buxton (+20000), C.J. Cron (+30000)
  • Cy Young Candidates: Jose Berrios (+2500), Kyle Gibson (+5000), Jake Odorizzi (+10000)

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Analysis

Player(s) to Watch: Byron Buxton/Miguel Sano/Max Kepler

Most teams had one clear guy who stuck out in my mind as someone to watch, but the Twins have a handful. I couldn’t decide between these three so screw it — I’ll talk about all of them.

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