Monday MLB Picks: Our Favorite Bets for A’s vs. Angels, Rockies vs. D-Backs, More
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured Mike Trout
- Looking for some quick MLB betting picks for Monday? Our staff's got you covered with four best bets.
- Two of our analysts are hitting the Rockies moneyline against Arizona, while the Angels and Brewers are drawing attention from the rest of our staff.
- Read on for a complete breakdown on each of our favorite Monday night MLB bets.
While it’s not quite a full slate, Monday’s 11 MLB matchups are still plenty enough for our baseball staff to find some value. And as we’ve broken down several of this evening’s games, we’ve also been looking for our single favorite spots of the night.
For two of our experts, that spot has been the same, and it comes by way of an NL West matchup between the D-backs and Rockies. We’ve also got a take on an American League battle out West, but we’ll start with the earliest of the three games, Twins vs. Brewers:
Odds as of 12 p.m. ET.
Danny Donahue: Brewers Moneyline (-104) vs. Twins
Sporting a losing record yet being lined as a pick’em with the 10-6 Twins tonight, the Brewers are in a bit of a sweet spot when it comes to MLB betting.
Milwaukee is getting just 30% of moneyline tickets, as bettors don’t seem to like a 6-7 team’s chances of putting together two wins in a row. But those bets are generating 60% of actual money being wagered, meaning bigger bettors are taking the uncomfortable side. And if history is any indication, that side has been the right one.
Since 2005, MLB teams listed at minus-money and getting less than a third of bets — but a higher percentage of money than bets — against an opponent with a better record have gone 101-74, for 13.2 units and a 7.6% return on investment.
Filtering for such teams that are also coming off a win, however, like the Brewers, spits out a ridiculous 60-25 record, good for 27.0 units and a 31.8% ROI.
I’ll fade the “they can’t possibly win two in a row” narrative and lay a -104 number with Milwaukee.
Collin Wilson: Rockies Moneyline (-130) vs. Diamondbacks
Considering Robbie Ray’s recent performance and a mix of park factors at Coors Field, we can expect runs to be scored. Ray has been shelled so far this season to the tune of a 6.30 xFIP and a home-run-per-nine rate of 4.05. The Diamondbacks southpaw has not fared well in Coors, with a lifetime WHIP of 1.75. The Rockies are also one of the better teams against left-handed pitching, ranking 7th in wRC+ and line-drive percentage.
The Diamondbacks’ sticks have been down right lifeless. There are no splits that make the offense any better, with a wRC+ of 28th against right-handed pitching. The Snakes are third-lowest in BABIP and mid-tier in strikeouts. That regression will come around at some point during the season, but until then we continue to fade Arizona. Backing Jon Gray for the Rockies has always been a better decision at Coors. Gray has a better career xFIP at Coors than away from home and has given up just a single home run in 16 innings pitched so far this season.
We will continue to back Gray at home and fade a Diamondbacks team that has yet to play to its potential this season.
BJ Cunningham: Rockies Moneyline (-130) vs. Diamondbacks
I agree with Collin on this pick.
Robbie Ray has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball to begin the season and going into Coors is a recipe for disaster. His biggest issue, as far as his pitch arsenal is concerned, is his fastball. He’s seen an uptick in velocity from 2019, but he’s allowed a .462 wOBA to opponents on his fastball. It’s his main pitch, too (throwing it 50% of the time), so he’s in for a world of hurt Monday against a Rockies lineup that ranks fourth against fastballs, with 11.4 weighted fastball runs so far in 2020.
Jon Gray hasn’t been great to begin the season either, posting a 5.01 xFIP in his first three starts. His biggest issue is that his secondary pitches are getting shelled. His changeup and sinker have allowed over a .370 wOBA to opponents and have yielded seven of his 12 hits so far in 2020. His fastball and slider, though, have been electric so far, holding opponents to a .132 batting average against on 169 pitches. The Diamondbacks offense has been the worst in baseball against fastballs so far in 2020, so I expect Gray to utilize his fastball a lot on Monday to shut down the D-backs lineup.
I think the Rockies are severely undervalued at home on Monday so I’ll be tailing Collin and taking the Rockies at -124 as well.
Stuckey: Angels Moneyline (+112) & First 5 Moneyline (+118) vs. A’s
I’m not happy about it but have to fade Oakland tonight. I’m pretty much all in on the A’s this season from a futures perspective and have been riding them quite frequently to start the year. Their entire staff has been great (2.66 team ERA trails only the Dodgers and Indians) with one exception: Sean Manaea.
I, like others, had concerns about Manaea coming into the season after seeing him struggle in exhibitions as a result of a velocity dip.
Well, nothing much has changed during the actual season. In fairness, his sky-high ERA is a bit misleading as he has been fairly unlucky based on a lot of his underlying metrics. However, I’m most concerned about what has happened to him after the first few innings. He hasn’t made it through the fifth once in his three starts. His velocity has really started to dip after the third inning and control has become a tad more erratic.
As a result, he’s allowed just a single run in the first three innings of his three starts. In innings four and five? 12!
In his career, Manaea has struggled some against the Angels, including in a loss earlier this year. And the Halos obviously have more pop in their lineup now against lefties with both Trout and Rendon in the lineup.
I’m not a huge Julio Teheran fan but if you’re going to take on the A’s, it’s best to do it with a right-handed starter to face their right-handed heavy lineup. Hopefully he can induce some ground balls with his sinker if he needs to wiggle out of some jams early.
Oakland does have a pretty substantial bullpen edge, so give me some first 5 ML as well.