The San Francisco Giants (54-53) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (45-62) on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network
Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Giants predictions and picks below.
Pirates vs Giants Predictions, Picks
- Pirates vs Giants picks: Giants Moneyline (-168 FanDuel) & Giants -1.5 (+130 bet365)
My Pirates vs Giants best bets are the Giants moneyline and the Giants to cover the run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Giants Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8 -105o / -115u | +146 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -105o / -115u | -174 |
Pirates vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Bailey Falter (PIT) | Stat | RHP Justin Verlander (SFG) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | W-L | 1-8 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.82 / 4.38 | ERA /xERA | 4.70 / 4.87 |
| 4.73 / 4.81 | FIP / xFIP | 4.32 / 4.88 |
| 1.18 | WHIP | 1.49 |
| 7.8% | K-BB% | 9.8% |
| 35.9% | GB% | 35.8% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 100 | Location+ | 96 |
Pirates vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Giants enter tonight’s matchup as a sizable home favorite at -168, and there’s compelling system data, sharp line movement, and matchup context all pointing in the same direction: San Francisco moneyline and -1.5 are both live.
Let’s start with the systems. First, we have the “West Coast Teams at Home vs East Coast Teams, Night Game (Wide Favorite -150 to -220)” system. This angle targets heavily favored West Coast clubs hosting East Coast teams in night games — a situation that consistently tilts in favor of the home team. Over time, it's hit 212-94 (69%) with a 9% ROI, as the travel demands, time zone shifts, and unfamiliar stadium conditions typically work against East Coast teams. While the current season is off to a modest 11-8 start (58%, -8% ROI), the long-term edge in this scenario remains firmly intact.
Next, we see confirmation from the “Mid-Season Favorites Off a Loss, Recently Losing, but with a Win% Above 45%” system — a mouthful, but a sharp one. This angle keys in on bounce-back opportunities for decent teams in mid-season slumps, who the market still respects. Historically, this system has delivered a 542-310 (64%) record with an 11% ROI, and it’s doing well again in 2025 at 19-11 (63%, ROI: 10%). The Giants fit the bill perfectly here: recently inconsistent, but still a strong overall team with an above-average win rate, now priced to recover at home.
Zooming in on Vegas-backed action, the movement on the Giants -1.5 run line is impossible to ignore. Despite just 38% of dollars backing the run line, books have moved San Francisco’s +170 price all the way down to +125 — a massive correction that strongly suggests sharp bettors are hammering the alternate line. Moves like this, especially on run lines, are often driven by market-setting accounts with model-based confidence.
On the mound, Justin Verlander brings narrative risk but underlying value. While his 1-8 record might scare off casual bettors, he’s been quietly settling in. In his last two starts — 6 innings of 2-run ball vs. the Phillies and 5 innings, 2 runs at Cincinnati — Verlander showed command, comfort, and efficiency. We’ve backed him in the past with success, and in a pitcher-friendly park like Oracle Park, he’s capable of giving the Giants a solid foundation.
Opposing him is Bailey Falter, whose surface stats look decent (7-5, 3.82 ERA) — but that hides his road struggles. Away from home, he holds a 4.43 ERA with just 1 win all season, and he’s not a swing-and-miss threat. With just 69 strikeouts over 108.1 innings, Falter profiles as a soft contact pitcher — a risky recipe against a patient Giants lineup in a park where balls-in-play matter.
In short, this is a systems-backed bounce-back spot with major sharp run line action and a starting pitcher edgehiding beneath misleading surface stats. The Giants are in a strong position to take care of business — and don’t be surprised if they do it by multiple runs. Giants ML and Giants -1.5 are both in play tonight.
Picks: Giants ML (-168 FanDuel) & Giants -1.5 (+130 Bet365)
Moneyline
I'm betting the Giants on the moneyline tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
Additionally, we're backing the Giants to cover the run line.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the Pirates vs. Giants over/under tonight.
