The San Diego Padres (58-49) host the New York Mets (62-45) on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Mets' seven-game winning streak was snapped by the Padres in the series opener — can New York rebound on Tuesday night with Sean Manaea on the hill?
Find my Tuesday MLB betting preview and Mets vs Padres prediction and pick below.
New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction
- Mets vs Padres picks: Padres Moneyline (+105) | Play to -118
My Mets vs Padres best bet is the Padres moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Padres Odds, Lines
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8 -120o / 100u | -130 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8 -120o / 100u | +110 |
Mets vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) | Stat | RHP Ryan Bergert (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0-2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.19/2.77 | ERA /xERA | 2.84/4.62 |
| 3.49/2.84 | FIP / xFIP | 4.26/4.59 |
| 0.97 | WHIP | 1.14 |
| 28.0% | K-BB% | 12.3% |
| 34.6% | GB% | 28.6% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 101 | Location+ | 112 |
Mets vs Padres Preview, Predictions
Mets Betting Preview
Sean Manaea was a revelation for the Mets a season ago, finally blending his solid strikeout-to-walk ratio with some better results on contact. New York clearly stressed the importance of pitching to fly balls with the veteran, and he delivered a .226 Expected Batting Average, which was a career best for a season in which he pitched at least 30 innings.
The left-hander has showcased much of the same through his first three starts of the 2025 season, too, pitching to more contact in the air and registering a stellar .195 xBA with just one earned run against him in each of his first three starts. Manaea's strikeout numbers have started out strong, too, as he's sat down 18 to just four walks across 12 1/3 innings.
Those outings have been relatively straightforward, however, coming against the Royals, Reds and Angels. This one should prove to be a bit harder given San Diego's excellence in getting the ball into play, and it will be a good test of where Manaea is relative to his breakthrough 2024 campaign at 32 years of age.
This Mets offense isn't exactly worth writing much about at the moment, running a .233 average over the last two weeks with an unassuming .161 Isolated Power, but they've looked good for parts of the previous month and a half. They're currently running a solid 10.1% walk rate, at the very least, and while strikeouts have been an issue, there are certainly guiltier teams than New York and its 23.3% punchout rate.
Padres Betting Preview
The man on the other side of this matchup is a lot more of an unknown. Ryan Bergert has been auditioning as a starter over the last two months, and the results have been more or less fine, with the peripherals looking like a mixed bag.
Bergert has run a 3.25 ERA since being stretched out at the beginning of June, but his FIP stands at 4.46 on account of a high WHIP, driven by a ton of walks.
The rookie has struggled pretty consistently to limit walks throughout his career in the minors. While he exhibited a bit more control in the upper minors late last year and at the start of 2025, he's issued a free pass to almost 11% of the batters he's seen in the bigs.
It's kind of a shame, too, because the righty has been able to carry over some above-average strikeout numbers to this level with opponents hitting a low .208 against him as a starter. With that said, his .254 xBA since graduating from the bullpen suggests plenty of regression is coming, and his .458 Expected Slugging is an abysmal mark.
The righty now owns a startling 43.5% fly-ball rate in 31 2/3 innings, and while that number will eventually come back down a bit, it's nothing new given his profile in the minors. He's going to be aided by his friendly home park, and to make matters even sweeter, his outfield ranks fourth in Outs Above Average this season.
Mets vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mets ordinarily love hitting fly-ball pitchers — against whom they're ranked second in baseball with a .781 OPS. With that said, the Mets ran a poor .654 OPS in San Diego last season, and on Monday, once again struggled to hit in this park — even with a terrific matchup versus Dylan Cease.
Bergert isn't exactly the most trustworthy guy to throw your money behind, but I think this spot makes a lot of sense. New York's had its fair share of issues with contact, and while it's walked in plenty of plate appearances — which should hurt the rookie in theory — it's not hitting for enough power right now to overcome this pitcher-friendly park and elite outfield defense.
On the other side of the coin, New York's outfield defense has really struggled this season, and San Diego is getting a ton of balls back into play, which should put the onus on Manaea to continue pitching to friendly contact.
Manaea was better at that last year, but he certainly wasn't a maestro, and now we're looking at some inflated 2025 numbers in a small sample against three bad offenses. The Padres are running the eighth-best wRC+ in baseball over the last two weeks with a whopping .284 average, and they should continue to populate the bases and put the pressure on a shaky Mets defense.
Pick: Padres Moneyline (+100) | Play to -118
