The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs on July 30, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSWI.
The Brewers will look to grow their division lead to three games with a win in the series finale. Milwaukee is a -125 favorite.
Read our Cubs vs Brewers prediction and MLB pick below.
My Cubs vs Brewers Prediction
- Cubs vs Brewers pick: Cubs ML (+105, BetMGM)
My Cubs vs Brewers best bet is on the Cubs ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Brewers Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +105 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -125 |
Cubs vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 12-4 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 3.12 / 3.92 | ERA / xERA | 2.81 / 3.51 |
| 4.71 / 4.88 | FIP / xFIP | 3,67 / 3.95 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 1.09 |
| 12.2% | K-BB% | 17.8% |
| 28.2% | GB% | 38% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 108 | Location+ | 102 |
Sean Paul’s Cubs vs Brewers Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Power Bats Seek Spark
When Shota Imanaga has a bad outing, it’s pretty easy to find why.
When he’s off, he’s getting crushed by the longball. Imanaga has allowed multiple home runs in four of his 14 outings, and the Cubs are 2-2 in those games.
I’m still a believer in Imanaga. I foresee his potential regression being so dramatic that his 3.12 ERA gets in the ballpark of his 4.70 FIP and 4.87 xFIP. Most pitchers who strike out just 6.45 batters per nine while allowing 1.62 HR/9 usually have a bad FIP. Imanaga is no exception. He went from a 9.03 K/9 to a 6.45 K/9 this year, yet he still finds a way to give the Cubs strong outings.
The Cubs' offense has struggled since returning from the All-Star break. Well, for their lofty standards, that is. They rank 15th among MLB lineups with 107 wRC+ once play resumed on July 18th. But if that's the worst it'll get for the Cubs, that's a good sign. They sit near the top in most power categories this year, but they're 13th in home runs since the break.
If I told you that Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, and Kyle Tucker each have one home run in ten games, you wouldn't be stunned that Chicago's offense isn't as lethal as it was in May and June.
However, that's why I believe in Chicago. It shows a lot of fortitude to be a league-average offense while posting a strong 8.8% walk rate amid a brutal stretch from its three best bats.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Bats Struggle vs Lefties
Similar to Imanaga, Brewers ace Freddy Peralta is staring down regression.
Peralta has avoided unfriendly results thus far, keeping his ERA below 3.00, but his xERA is hovering around 3.51, and his FIP is 3.66. The problem Peralta faces is walks, as he has a 3.11 BB/9. He also strikes out 9.69 batters per nine, so Peralta can give some brief outings if his pitch count gets out of control.
Peralta is such an interesting pitcher. He throws his four-seamer 56% of the time, while featuring a changeup, curveball, and slider. But his bread and butter is his high fastball, and he gets in trouble when the fastball location is off, as he starts walking too many guys.
As I touched on earlier, the way to beat Imanaga is to drive the ball. That's something the Brewers haven't done well versus southpaws, ranking 23rd among MLB lineups with 25 home runs and 26th with a .120 ISO.
Andrew Vaughn's sudden career resurgence has helped the Brewers' cause. But between Christian Yelich being dreadful against lefties and a chunk of their roster having no power, they need to string together runs. That won't be easy against Imanaga without exposing his homer woes.
Cubs vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'll grab the plus money with the Cubs, who look to avoid a sweep against the NL Central-leading Brewers.
This matchup represents a total contrast of styles between the pitchers and the lineups.
In Imanaga's case, he's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, ranking in the third percentile among qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate and the 18th in strikeout rate. Most of his outs are in the air, something the Brewers don't hit many of, ranking 27th among MLB lineups in fly-ball rate.
They also sport a mediocre 30.3% hard hit rate, which is the seventh-worst rate among MLB lineups. I don't see this matchup playing out favorably for an offense that wants to get the ball in play.
Imanaga also wants the ball in play, and the Cubs' defense is outstanding. Up the middle, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner are two of the best at their positions, while Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong could win Gold Gloves in right and center field, respectively.
Pick: Cubs ML (+105, BetMGM)
Moneyline
I'm going with the Cubs here
Run Line (Spread)
No play
Over/Under
No play
