The Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Sportsnet and MASN.
The Orioles have won five games in a row and look to sweep the rival Blue Jays today.
Find my Wednedsay MLB betting preview and Blue Jays vs Orioles prediction.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Prediction and Pick
- Blue Jays vs Orioles Picks: Over 10 (-102 | Play to -110)
My Blue Jays vs Orioles best bet is Over 10. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 10 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 10 -105o / -115u | -115 |
Blue Jays vs Orioles Probable Pitchers
| RHP Jose Berrios (TOR) | Stat | RHP Dean Kremer (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 8-7 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.77 |
| 3.83 / 4.56 | ERA /xERA | 4.23 / 3.92 |
| 4.29 / 4.29 | FIP / xFIP | 3.99 / 4.15 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 12.2% | K-BB% | 13.2% |
| 39% | GB% | 39.1% |
| 90 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 101 | Location+ | 103 |
Tony Sartori’s Blue Jays vs Orioles Preview
Why the Blue Jays Can Win
It is still time to sell high on José Berríos. He started the season well, which has kept his surface-level stats grounded.
However, his underlying metrics suggest that regression is inevitable. This season, Berríos ranks in the bottom third of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity and barrel rate.
This expected regression has materialized in July. Over his past five starts, Berríos has posted a 6.12 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
There were 12 or more runs scored in three of those five outings. Another high-scoring affair is likely to occur against the Orioles, a team that has shelled Berríos in both of their meetings this season.
Why The Orioles Can Win
Berríos has allowed four or more runs in each of those two starts against Baltimore. There were 13 or more total runs scored in both games.
Another factor supporting a high-scoring game on Wednesday is that the Orioles will hand the ball to Dean Kremer. Through 21 appearances on the mound this season, Kremer owns a 4.23 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
Like Berríos, Kremer's analytics suggest more struggles ahead. Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA and strikeout rate.
Baltimore’s relief corps is also a concern. This season, the Orioles’ bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the league in ERA, fielding independent pitching (FIP) and wins above replacement (WAR).
How To Make Blue Jays vs Orioles Picks
Clearly, pitching is not the reason to expect this total to stay under 10. That just leaves the hitting, which further supports the over despite the high number.
Both teams rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, slugging percentage and OPS. Both lineups also boast an expected slugging percentage (xSLG) north of .480 in their respective careers against today's starting pitchers.
Pick: Over 10 (-102 | Play to -110)
Moneyline
I lean toward Baltimore, but I don't trust Kremer.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Baltimore to cover, but I'm staying away for the same reason listed above.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I'm betting Over 10.
