MLB Expert Predictions for Wednesday: Can the White Sox Bounce Back vs. the Twins?
Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Ross Detwiler (54).
- Our experts give out their favorite bets for Wednesday night's MLB slate, including Chicago Cubs-NY Mets (7:10 p.m. ET), Minnesota Twins-Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. ET).
Zerillo: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Jake Odorizzi (13-6, 3.57 ERA) vs. Ross Detwiler (2-3, 5.51 ERA)
- Twins Moneyline: -179
- White Sox Moneyline: 169
- Over/Under: 10.5
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Coming off of a 3-1 loss against the Twins with their ace Lucas Giolito on the mound, bettors probably won’t be looking to back journeyman Ross Detwiler against Jake Odorizzi — a pitcher with 13 wins and the 10th best ERA in the American League.
On August 21, I discussed how Odorizzi’s performance uptick this season has coincided with an increase to his fastball velocity by two miles per hour, an increase in his swinging-strike rate and strikeout rate.
In recent starts, however, Odorizzi’s velocity has started to come back down — from a peak of nearly 94 mph earlier in 2019 to an average of 92.4 mph over his past three outings:
The White Sox beat Odorizzi in his last outing, with eight hits and four runs over five innings.
The 33-year-old Detwiler is doing something different this year — throwing a cutter (87.8 mph) 15% of the time.
He also owns a career-high groundball rate (55.1%) that is 9% higher than his career average, but the remainder of his profile is uninspiring (6.74 FIP, 4.72 xFIP).
The South Siders are in a profitable spot tonight, as they fit the following system:
That system is 54-55 in 2019, generating a profit of over 25 units.
The PICK: Chicago White Sox Moneyline (+169)
John Ewing: Chicago Cubs at New York Mets
Kyle Hendricks(9-9, 3.20 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (9-6, 3.71 ERA)
- Cubs Moneyline: +105
- Mets Moneyline: -114
- Over/Under: 7.5
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
With two competent pitchers in Kendricks (3.20 ERA) and Syndergaard (3.71 ERA) on the mound and a Mets offense that has scored just nine runs in the past four games, it is no wonder oddsmakers are expecting a low scoring affair at Citi Field tonight.
But this season it has been profitable to bet the over in low-total games. The over is 141-114-10 (55%) in games with totals of eight runs or fewer. The Mets have been the most profitable over team in these games going 26-16 this season.
A one season sample is not the most ideal for basing a bet on, but there has also been a steam move bet signal, an indication of sharp money, on the over 7.5.
With the uptick in home runs this season, there have been 1.4 home runs hit per game (highest mark in MLB history), it is easy for a game to go over a low total, even with two good pitchers starting. I’m going to continue riding this trend and betting overs in low-total games.
The PICK: Over 7.5