MLB Expert Picks for Tuesday: Can Tanner Roark Pitch the A’s Over the Astros?

Sean Zerillo: Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros

Tanner Roark (3-1, 2.70 ERA) vs. Wade Miley (13-4, 3.35 ERA)

• Athletics Moneyline: +146
• Astros Moneyline: -156
• Over/Under: 10
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET

Starting with line value, I see the Athletics as a 44.6% underdog in this game, equivalent to fair odds of +124; so I show more than 20 cents of value on Oakland.

They’re also coming off of a 15-0 drubbing at the hands of the Astros, and the public will be all over Houston on Tuesday – with their offense having scored 36 runs in their past two games.

The Athletics are 47-21 (69%, +$1,853) on the full-game moneyline vs. left-handed starters since July 1, 2018; including a 16-13 record as an underdog.

They also fit the following system, as a contrarian underdog coming off of a loss:

As of writing, the Marlins, Padres and Phillies also fit that same system for Tuesday – and I’m backing all of those teams as I see line value on each.

But I bet the Athletics at +125, even before I showed line value, as riding this team against lefty pitching has been a staple on my 2019 betting cards. And I bet them again at their current price.

The PICK: Oakland Athletics Moneyline

John Ewing: Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers

Ryan Yarbrough (11-3, 3.49 ERA) vs. Lance Lynn (14-10, 3.81 ERA)

• Rays Moneyline: -134
• Rangers Moneyline: +124
• Over/Under: 9
• First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET

Windy conditions are expected for Rangers-Rays. The forecast calls for 12 mph winds blowing in from center.

Historically, it has been profitable to bet the under when the wind blows in.

In Rangers home games matching this system, the under has gone 145-105-14 (58%) since 2005.

The wind will help, so will the pitching matchup. Yarbrough has a 2.25 ERA in his past six appearances holding opposing batters to a .195 batting average. Lynn has been one of the Rangers best pitchers this season accumulating a 6.0 WAR.

The PICK: Under 9

Danny Donahue: Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles

Walker Buehler (12-3, 3.28 ERA) vs. Ty Blach (1-2, 10.95 ERA)

• Dodgers Moneyline: -310
• Orioles Moneyline: +275
• Over/Under: 10.5
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Just as it's profitable to take unders in games with heavy home favorites, it's also been a smart move to take the over in a game with a heavy road favorite — a game in which the bottom of the ninth will almost surely be played.

Overall, overs are 137-100-12 since 2005 when the road team is -200 or higher, but a couple simple filters makes that record even more impressive. Limiting to games in which the total is 8 or higher and did not fall from its opener (to reduce the chance of a sharp under) generates a nice 88-58-5 (60.3%) record, good for 24.5 units and a 16.2% ROI since '05.

The PICK: Under 10.5

Mark Gallant: Los Angeles Dodgers at Baltimore Orioles

Walker Buehler (12-3, 3.28 ERA) vs. Ty Blach (1-2, 10.95 ERA)

• Dodgers Moneyline: -315
• Orioles Moneyline: +275
• Over/Under: 10.5
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Ah, it’s one of my favorite systems rearing its pretty head – fading massive favorites on the run-line. It’s no secret that the Dodgers are excellent and the Orioles are horrendous, but historically taking teams in Baltimore’s spot has been quite profitable.

If a team getting +1.5 runs has a +140 payout or higher, just bet on them. Simple as that. If you did that all year, you’d be up just about seven units. The return of investment just north of 10% lines up with its historical success dating back to 2005, too, so this year is no fluke.

It won’t be fun to watch, but in the long run betting on these spots is profitable.

The PICK: Orioles +1.5 (+175)