Diamondbacks vs. Rockies MLB Odds & Picks: Bet Colorado to Get Right at Coors Field (Tuesday, April 6)
John McCoy/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Blackmon.
- The Colorado Rockies take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in MLB action on Tuesday night.
- The D-Backs have struggles at the plate since a surprise flurry on Opening Day, leaving a chance for the Rockies to get back on the right track at home.
- Kenny Ducey breaks down the game and explains why he's backing Colorado below.
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Odds
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
Despite grabbing impressive upset victories over the two powers in the NL West, both the Diamondbacks and Rockies wound up losing three of four in their opening series and ride into yet another divisional matchup in search of wins.
Arizona will send the wildly inconsistent Luke Weaver to the hill to face Germán Márquez, who as it turns out, was the starter in Colorado’s lone win this season.
Will Márquez come up with the goods once again, or will Arizona find another offensive outburst like it did on Opening Day? Let’s see if we can find some value here in what should be a tight game.
It should have been expected after so many solo home runs and so few hits with runners in scoring position on Opening Day, but the Diamondbacks offense has yet to replicate the seven runs it scored on Thursday.
In fact, after that game in which they picked up just a single hit in nine at-bats with runners in scoring position, Arizona has mustered just five runs in three games. It turned out not to bite it on Sunday thanks to a gem spun by Taylor Widener, but the bats will certainly be an issue going forward as the Diamondbacks face some tough hurlers.
Speaking of hurlers, Weaver — one of the most mysterious pitchers in the game — will make his season debut for the D-Backs on Tuesday. A former first-round pick, much has always been expected of Weaver, and though on the whole he hasn’t delivered on what he was promised to be, he’s been effective in certain spots.
Weaver was pretty sub-par when it came to limiting hard contact in 2020, allowing more than 40% of batted balls to travel at least 95 MPH for a second straight season, but his strikeout rate was pretty solid again, and his ability to limit walks ranked in the 62nd percentile.
Since joining up with the Diamondbacks in 2019, it’s hard to say Weaver’s won them many games, but it’s equally as difficult to say he’s lost them many games.
In a contest against a sub-par offense, his control and fantastically average strikeout stuff should prove effective enough to get the Diamondbacks in a position to win with anything decent at the plate.
Speaking of giving your team a chance to win, that’s precisely what Márquez did for Colorado in a tight battle with the Dodgers on Opening Day. The righty gave up just a run on six hits over four innings at Coors Field against perhaps the most formidable lineup in baseball, which was an impressive feat.
Márquez has been a tough cookie to figure out over the years, displaying solid command of his arsenal and generally limiting walks but never posting exceptional numbers. The simple answer is that’s due to Coors Field, where he had a 5.68 ERA in six starts last year compared to a 2.06 ERA in seven outings away from Colorado.
When you look at the peripherals, it gets a bit muddier. No one could give up the hard contact that Márquez does and expect to succeed; the 26-year-old sat in the bottom 3% of pitchers in 2019 with an average exit velocity of 91.1 MPH.
Still, his fastball has been largely effective in the past few years, which is probably why he threw it 52% of the time against LA. He managed to mix in his putaway pitch, the curveball, rather effectively against the Dodgers, too, despite just the one strikeout and should see more success with it against a weaker lineup.
Márquez’s affinity for his fastball so far this year could prove to be a deciding factor in how Tuesday’s game goes.
Aside from David Peralta, none of the Diamondbacks were particularly effective against four-seamers last year. What’s more, this lineup just has refused to hit since a random Opening Day flurry of solo homers, giving me no more confidence that it can hit than I had coming into the year.
Colorado, meanwhile, just gave the Dodgers one hell of a fight and should be able to touch up the inconsistent Weaver in this one.
Márquez’s numbers at Coors certainly scare me, but it’s Coors, which affects even the game’s best arms. The Rockies should have a decided edge both in their starter and in their lineup. I’ll take them as the short home favorite.
Pick: Rockies -120
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