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MLB Odds & Betting Picks for Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians: How to Bet Carlos Rodón After No-Hitter (Tuesday, April 20)

MLB Odds & Betting Picks for Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians: How to Bet Carlos Rodón After No-Hitter (Tuesday, April 20) article feature image

Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Rodón basks in the aftermath of his no-hitter last week.

  • Carlos Rodón takes the mound on Tuesday for the first time since throwing a no-hitter last week. Should Johnny Vander Meer be worried?
  • Rodón takes on the same team with the same oppositing pitcher in Cleveland and Zach Plesac.
  • How should you bet the encore? Jeff Hicks breaks it down below.

White Sox vs. Indians Odds

White Sox Odds-120
Indians Odds+100
Over/Under7.5 (+105 / -125)
Time6:10 p.m. ET
Odds updated Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET and via PointsBet.

The last time Zach Plesac took the mound against the Pale Hose, he was lit up for six earned runs in 2/3 of an inning while his counterpart, Carlos Rodón, threw a no-hitter (or toe-hitter).

The rematch takes place in Cleveland, where Plesac and company are 4-1. Will home cooking keep Cleveland eating on offense? Or do Rodón and the White Sox have enough pitching to wash out the bad taste from Monday’s loss in Boston?

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox played three games in two days over Sunday and Monday, including an 11:10 a.m. ET start Monday. Lucas Giolito did his best Plesac impression and needed extended help from his teammates in the bullpen.

Rodón is unlikely to pull a Johnny Vander Meer, but he may be asked to pitch as long as possible, even as position players soaked up two innings of work in Monday’s blowout loss. There has long presumed to be a letdown for a pitcher in the start after throwing a no-hitter, but history says it is not fact. One thing that was interesting about Rodón’s performance: His fastball velocity increased as the game went on and topped out in the ninth inning. Batters are hitting .091 against it in 2021.

Rodón is facing the sixth-worst offense in the American League according to Offensive WAR. If it weren’t for the longball, Cleveland would be worse. Its hitters are walking and striking out at good rates, but subpar baserunning and dependence on homers is holding back the team early in 2021. Rodon has allowed zero home runs in 14 innings.

The White Sox were seventh in Offensive WAR prior to Monday’s disappointment. Chicago is also running the bases well and is better than Cleveland at walking and limiting strikeouts. Tim Anderson’s return to the lineup has given the top of the lineup even more juice than what the White Sox had without him.

A mix of offense and Rodón’s rejuvenation is a big reason why Chicago is favored.

Cleveland Indians

Pitching inconsistency has been an issue behind Shane Bieber. The youth and talent is there and after moving on from Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Carlos Carrasco.

Zach Plesac has shown a lot of promise and took one on the chin against Chicago last week. Opposing hitters are making solid contact against him while striking out less often this season. His 5.27 ERA is well above his career mark and nearly 1.3 runs above his Expected Fielder Independent Pitching (xFIP) score.

Cleveland hits left-handed pitching better than right-handed (even with the no-hitter) and is league average as a team (100 Weighted Runs Created Plus). The team’s .216 BABIP against southpaws is 29th in baseball after last week.

A return home is good for #NarrativeStreet in sports and after two consecutive series losses is probably welcomed. Better days are ahead for the offense.

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White Sox-Indians Pick

Lightning rarely strikes twice and Cleveland is due for positive regression against lefties. A tired bullpen and its mismanagement is also a concern with Chicago reeling, making Cleveland an attractive bet as plus money, which I’d bet down even if it became slightly favored before first pitch.

Pick: Cleveland ML (+104, bet to -115)

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